In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s main slate.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
John Daigle: Juan Nicasio, PIT, SP
Ramsay Bolton was lucky to shed the suffix “Snow” (even though this change didn’t benefit Sansa Stark). The entire cast of Ocean’s Eleven was lucky that (the character played by) Andy Garcia hired only incompetent staff at all three of his casinos. But no one is luckier than Juan Nicasio.
Nicasio’s start at Coors was postponed (due to inclement weather), and now he gets to face the Reds, who have produced a bottom-four Weighted On-Base Average vs. right-handed pitching. Nicasio’s slate-high WHIP might be an initial concern, but don’t let it bother you: Cincinnati has the lowest base-on-balls percentage (6.1 percent) against righties this season. It’s no luck that his salary at DraftKings ($5,800) remains all too easy to roster tonight.
Check out the rest of John’s recommendations for today in his slate breakdown.
Bryan Mears: Nolan Arenado, COL, 3B
When I first look at a slate, I try my best to take in the whole picture before getting into the specifics of data, matchups, etc. I find that the process helps me identify potential strategies for tournaments or notice players who otherwise maybe wouldn’t have caught my attention. Today, that is the Colorado batters.
We’ve just dealt with a lot of Coors Field slates, and I wonder if there might be DFS fatigue: We’re finally out of Coors! I don’t have to try to fit in Trevor Story or Nolan Arenado anymore! I think that we do this naturally with non-Coors players as well: I just took Player X and he hit a home run last night, and since MLB is so volatile I shouldn’t roster him again because he won’t hit a homer two nights in a row.
This is a lot of musing about potential biases we might have, but I believe that gauging those are so important in order to do well in tournaments. The reason that Colorado batters are interesting tonight is because they’re 1) now priced down and 2) still in a good park situation. Coors Field is obviously the most hitter friendly park (batters average a +1.8 Plus/Minus there). However, the second-best field for batters is Chase Field (where the Rockies and Diamondbacks face off tonight) with a mark of +0.7.
We know that ownership and salaries are often inflated at Coors Field, and although they will still be high at Chase (especially for Arizona players tonight), they will likely be reduced for the Rockies simply because they are away from the aura of Coors. And with possible roster fatigue and user bias factored in, tonight might be a really good time to target Rockies hitters in guaranteed prize pools. Of note: Nolan Arenado still has a .226 Isolated Power (ISO) despite being a reverse-splits player (meaning that he’s better against his fellow right-handers).
Jonathan Cabezas: Corey Kluber, CLE, SP
Kluber checks a lot of the boxes, starting with Vegas, where the Indians currently have a -195 moneyline and the opposing Phillies have an implied total of only 3.1 runs. Kluber started the season off a bit slow, but has shown his elite strikeout potential lately, striking out eight and 10 batters in his past two starts. He allowed nine hits and six earned runs in one of those starts, but those numbers might not be very pertinent to his matchup against the Phillies, whose 69 runs scored this seasonare tied for worst in the league.
Kluber isn’t cheap per se ($12,500 on DraftKings and $11,000 on FanDuel) but he is relatively cheap on FD, where he has a 92 percent Bargain Rating. And even with his elevated salary, he is deserving of cash game and tournament consideration, on account of his Upside and matchup. Kluber’s 1.04 WHIP and 10.1 K/9 are both among the top in Friday’s slate. And did I mention that he is playing the Phillies? Sign him up for a spot in my roster tonight.
Tyler Buecher: Neil Walker, NYM, 2B
With a large slate of games tonight, one player I’m heavily looking at is the Mets’ Neil Walker, who has been crushing the ball over the past 15 days. Per our advanced data, Walker leads all second basemen in hard-hit percentage at 54 percent, and his average batted-ball distance of 265 feet has helped make him a viable tournament play every night, as he’s tied for the most home runs this season. Walker’s recent ability to blend both hard hits with fly balls (54 percent) has helped him average 16.6 FanDuel fantasy points over his past 15 games. Top-five in both ISO and home runs per at bat, Walker makes for a great play in tonight’s slate if you are searching for Upside.
Going against San Francisco’s Jake Peavy, the hot Walker should be able to stay hot. Jake Peavy’s velocity has dipped over the past 15 days, as he’s now the second-slowest pitcher on the slate, throwing at only 86.9 miles per hour. With a 6.86 earned run average in his four starts, Peavy is allowing nearly nine hits per game with one of the lowest SO/9s on the slate. Given Walker’s recent success and his position-leading seven Pro Trends on FanDuel, look for Walker to continue to make Peavy’s month of April one to forget.
Matthew Freedman: David Peralta, ARI, OF
I’m not overthinking this. In fact, I’m probably not even thinking. This is just instinct. Peralta is expected to be the cleanup hitter for a Diamondbacks lineup with a slate-high Vegas implied total of five runs. Peralta is playing at home in Chase Field — or, as it has quickly become known around here, “Coors Lite,” courtesy of Mitch Block — a stadium that is very friendly to hitters. On DraftKings especially Peralta is a strong play because of his $3,500 salary and 75 percent Bargain Rating.
Even with only five Pro Trends (a respectable amount but nothing special), Peralta is the highest and fourth-highest rated outfielder in the Bales 2016 and CSURAM88 2016 models. Additionally, he has one of the slate’s best Weather Ratings and a zero percent chance of precipitation. Finally, despite reaching his Upside in 20 percent of his contests over the last month — and he also has a strong 45 percent Consistency over that timeframe — Peralta has experienced a Salary Change of -$300. He makes a nice play in cash games and tournaments.
———
The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and every Wednesday for PGA.
