In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s main slate.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
Jay Persson: Matt Carpenter, STL, 3B
On such a small slate, it’s important to pick your spots carefuly when spending on expensive players. Usually, in cash games, you want to pay a premium for pitchers who have a high floor as well as high Upside. Value hitters are relatively easy to find due to the frequency of cheap hitters batting at the top of the lineup. This leaves you with a difficult decision to make when paying for one or two elite hitters.
Matt Carpenter makes this decision easy with his positive advanced stats and favorable matchup. Let’s be real: On a four-game slate, there aren’t too many studs to choose from. Carpenter fits the bill, though, as his .385 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and .247 Isolated Power (ISO) against right-handed pitchers lead all third basemen. Expected to hit leadoff, he is in a prime spot facing Rubby De La Rosa, as the Cardinals are projected to score 4.7 runs. De La Rosa allowed a .404 wOBA to left-handed batters last season. Don’t overthink think this spot. With the limited amount of options on the slate, paying for Carpenter is an easy play.
Mitchell Block: David Peralta, ARI, OF
We have a small slate of games today, but anytime I have the opportunity to roster the clean-up hitter from the team with the slate’s second-highest projected run total (at the time of this writing) at a mere $3,600 on DraftKings, I’m generally going to do so — particularly when he’s a player with splits as positive as Peralta’s.
Per our Trends tool, Peralta has an average Plus/Minus of +1.67 against righties, and if we adjust the trend to look at just his performance against right-handed pitching at Chase Field then we see a solid bump up to +2.34 (with a very solid 55.4 percent Consistency).
As for his matchup against Michael Wacha? I’m none too worried. Wacha has somehow managed a 2.82 earned run average through his first four starts, but don’t let that fool you: He has been getting knocked around plenty. With a BABIP of .347, some may argue that he has been getting a bit unlucky, but with an xFIP of 4.14, I’m more inclined to guess that luck has actually been on his side thus far. And our advanced metrics back up my hunch, as Wacha’s batted-ball distance differential sits at +23 feet and his opponent’s recent exit velocity sits at 90 MPH, one of the highest marks on today’s slate.
With a wOBA and ISO split of .400 and .226 respectively, Peralta slots in nicely as part of a Diamondbacks stack or as a cheaper, complementary piece to round out your outfield.
Brandon Hopper: Jose Fernandez, MIA, SP
Fernandez has already burned his DFS owners several times this year, so I’m following him today. He’ll be low-owned, and he always brings Upside with his high strikeout rate. In his last outing, Fernadez’s ownership percentage was about 10 percent, and he probably scared away even more DFSers with a 21-point Dud against the Giants.
Despite his struggles, Fernandez actually has a batted-ball differential of nine fewer feet and hard-hit differential that is down by five percentage points. In other words, his recent performance hasn’t actually been that bad. Both of those stats rank fifth among pitchers in today’s slate.
Also, using our Trends tool we can see that small underdogs (+100 to +150) who have a decent projected strikeout number have a Plus/Minus of +2.32.
For a guy likely to have limited ownership, Fernandez is a strong option.
Check out Brandon’s On The Contrary article for more on this play, coming soon.
Tyler Buecher: Kenta Maeda, LAD, P
Ownership is huge during a four-game slate. In what should be a nice pitching duel between the Marlins and Dodgers, Kenta Maeda is someone who should be targeted heavily. Maeda provides a nice bit of salary relief in this matchup for people who want to pivot off of Jose Fernandez’s $10,700 salary on FanDuel ($11,400 on DraftKings). Maeda’s .357 Home Runs Per Nine Innings is the lowest among all pitchers for the night, and his 82 percent Bargain Rating makes him a nice play among pitchers. Recent opposing batters have a hard-hit percentage of only 25 percent against Maeda, resulting in the lowest distance on batted balls (187 feet) over the past 15 days among tonight’s pitchers. He also has the lowest distance on batted balls (173 feet) for the past 12 months.
The Marlins enter this slate with the lowest implied total for the night at just 3.1 runs. Maeda’s 63 percent groundball-to-fly ball ratio leads the slate, a big factor for limiting opposing runs and increasing the potential for double plays. With eight Pro Trends in his favor, Maeda leads all pitchers with his +16.5 Plus/Minus, as his salary still tries to catch up with his 2016 performance. Averaging 44.5 fantasy points per game on FanDuel, Maeda makes for a strong play in what will be a limited field.
Kelly McCann: Mark Trumbo, BAL, OF
Picking on John Danks is fun. Except of course when that variance stuff gets weird and he hurls the occasional complete game with only one run allowed. Forgetting about that, just the name “John Danks” with no other filters in our Trends tool brings up a -1.29 Plus/Minus. Put Danks on the road and the Plus/Minus drops to -3.15.
And some advanced metrics suggest that Danks could be worse than that. When Danks’ 15-day fly ball percentage creeps above 50 percent (as it currently has), he’s good (read: “bad”) for a -5.10 Plus/Minus. And, finally, when Danks’ opponent’s 15-day distance differential increases at least 10 feet (it’s currently up 16 feet) his Plus/Minus plummets to a -6.24.
John Danks is fun to pick on, and the advanced data suggests that he’s currently in a vulnerable state. Meet Mark Trumbo, who feasts on left-handed pitching with a .385 wOBA and .295 ISO against southpaws. His .137 ISO differential against lefties is massive. Trumbo’s last four games have been very pedestrian, but his advanced batted ball metrics are all trending in a positive direction. His exit velocity is up and his hard-hit percentage has increased by seven percentage points over the past 15 days. Hitting it harder equals hitting it farther, as Trumbo’s average batted-ball distance is up 15 feet to a respectable 233 feet.
Firing up the old Trends tool again, we can see that when Trumbo faces a left-handed pitcher with a WHIP of at least 1.40 in a game with a total of at least 8.5, he has a +4.46 Plus/Minus and averages 12 DraftKings points per game. Insert Trumbo, and hope Danks doesn’t get all weird on you.
Matthew Freedman: Welington Castillo, ARI, C
With this main slate being a small one, the catcher position doesn’t offer a wealth of options, but Castillo is a serviceable player. Projected to hit sixth for a Diamondbacks lineup with a respectable implied Vegas total of 4.4 runs, Castillo is only $3,200, leading his position on DK with a 94 percent Bargain Rating. Of all catchers, he has the second-most Pro Trends with six. Going against Michael Wacha (a right-handed pitcher), Castillo has negative wOBA and ISO Differentials, so his matchup isn’t doing him any favors — but his .316 wOBA, .204 ISO, and .440 slugging percentage against righties nevertheless rank third, first, and second among the slate’s catchers.
Per his recent advanced stats, Castillo’s exit velocity of 94 miles per hour is the best among catchers in the slate, and he has the third-best batted-ball distance and second-best hard-hit percentage. And per his yearlong advanced data, Castillo is the slate’s top catcher in terms of batted-ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage. In terms of fantasy production, Castillo has averaged the most fantasy points on DK over the past year and past month, and he also has the best blend of Consistency and Upside across both of those timeframes.
And, despite his production, Castillo has experienced a -$600 Salary Change recently. He is admittedly a boom-or-bust player, as 43 percent of his games have been categorical Duds over the last month — but, with 50 percent Consistency and 37 percent Upside over that same period, Castillo is about as safe of a catcher as one can get on DK.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and every Wednesday for PGA.
