In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s main slate.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
John Daigle: Giancarlo Stanton, MIA, OF
I don’t know about you, but for me, a light bulb tends to go off when certain players are thrusted into particular matchups. Josh Donaldson vs. left-handed pitching , for instance, is certainly one of them. Also see Paul Goldschmidt vs. Tim Lincecum, hitters with (at least) a 44 percent fly ball percentage at Coors Field, or, in this case, Giancarlo Stanton vs. southpaws.
When squaring off against said handedness, Stanton basically becomes Season 6 of Curb Your Enthusiasm. [Editor’s Note: That’s a good thing.] Stanton is always great, but it’s only when Leon Black appears that he really shines (or, in this case, when his .868 slugging percentage stands out). [Editor’s Note: Leon Black is a character from Curb.] Stanton’s .585 Isolated Power (ISO) is also .197 greater than Bryce Harper’s tonight.
I realize that the Marlins are implied to score an abysmal total of 3.4 runs, but even I’m not crazy (eyes) enough to avoid Scott Kazmir’s tantalizing 1.27 HR/9 entirely. [Editor’s Note: “Crazy (Eyes)” is another allusion to Curb. John is basically the Larry David of FantasyLabs. You either love him — or you love him more.]
Check out the rest of John’s recommendations for today in his slate breakdown.
Bryan Mears: Neil Walker, NYM, 2B
The Mets pose problems to DFS stackers: If you play on DraftKings and want to get a full five-man stack, you typically go Nos. 1-5 or perhaps Nos. 2-6. However, the Mets have two great hitters at both the first spot (Curtis Granderson) and sixth spot (Neil Walker). This makes game theory and strategy really interesting if you want to roster the Mets as a stack (which you should do, as they’re facing Jon Moscot, who allows a very high 2.103 HR/9).
Walker’s advanced stats — like those for a lot of his fellow Mets batters — are elite. He has a hard-hit rate of 52 percent in the last 15 days, which is up 19 percentage points from last season. His average batted-ball distance of 257 feet is important to note as well. In tournaments, I always look at how I can potentially differentiate a high-upside stack. I think people might try so hard to fit the top-five batters for the Mets (wanting to get Granderson and his elite splits against RHP) and as a result they may not get to Walker. As a result, I’m all in on Neil Walker and potentially using a stack 1) without Granderson or 2) with Granderson and without one of the Nos. 2-5 batters.
Check out the rest of Bryan’s recommended plays in today’s Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, coming soon.
Bill Monighetti: Anthony Rizzo, CHC, 1B
Obviously, we generally roster Anthony Rizzo for his power numbers, so attacking an opposing pitcher with a groundball percentage of 57 may not seem like the most optimal play at first. However, consider that Rizzo’s Plus/Minus is +1.85 on DraftKings when facing pitchers whose groundball percentage exceeds 50.
Rizzo has 14 percent strikeout rate this season, so it’s pretty hard to imagine how Taylor Jungmann, who strikes out just 8.1 percent of opposing batters, is going to get a K on Rizzo. Also concerning for Jungmann is that over the past 15 days his velocity has decreased by 1.6 miles per hour and his hard-hit percentage allowed to opponents has jumped by 11 percentage points.
Collectively, the Cubs have posted a .320 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against righty pitchers over the past calendar year. As is typical of games at Wrigley Field, the Vegas line is not yet available at the time of this writing. Especially if the winds are blowing out, but even if not, consider a Cubs stack anchored by Anthony Rizzo as an alternative for those who are looking to fade Coors Field in guaranteed prize pools.
Mitchell Block: Corey Dickerson, TB, OF
By this point I think it’s fair to say we’re all aware that Dickerson mashes right-handed pitching, as evidenced by his wOBA and ISO Differentials of .161 and .226. One of the key questions regarding his production has always been how much of it was fueled by Coors field. Dickerson has done well enough to help quiet much of this talk, but I still want to dig into it a bit more. With the help of our Trends tool, I was able to pull some data that had me a bit worried.
At Coors versus righties: +4.6 Plus/Minus
Anywhere else: +.12 Plus/Minus
But despite this rough Coors/non-Coors split, Dickerson still manages to look good if we pit him against a subpar, right-handed pitcher.
Against righties with a WHIP of 1.3 — which includes today’s opposing pitcher Chris Tillman — Dickerson has a +1.24 Plus/Minus in non-Coors ballparks. That’s not anywhere near his Coors-inflated numbers, but at only $3,300 and carrying a 75 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, Dickerson certainly looks good enough through this trend to exploit.
Brandon Hopper: Matt Carpenter, STL, 3B
I’m almost too in love with Matt Carpenter today. We know we want our hitters hitting the ball in the air, but Carpenter’s fly ball percentage is slightly down over the past 15 days, and he’s hitting fewer line drives, too. Despite that, he’s hitting the ball 14 feet farther in the same time period. That tells us that, when he is hitting the ball in the air, it’s going much farther since the grounders heavily weigh the number downward. To top it off, his hard-hit percentage is up 10 percentage points and his exit velocity has also increased by 2 MPH over the last 15 days.
A quick glance at opposing pitcher Patrick Corbin and his recent advanced stats shows that his pitch speed and strike ratio are down and opponent distance, hard-hit percentage, and exit velocity are up. Corbin gave up three home runs in San Diego in his last outing, and now he heads to hitter-friendly Chase Field.
On DraftKings, Carpenter has had a one-day Salary Change from $4,500 to $3,800, and he now boasts a Bargain rating of 91 percent. He’s got a lefty-on-lefty matchup to keep his ownership somewhat low, but Carpenter doesn’t actually succumb heavily to negative splits, and the third baseman has eight Pro Trends on his side.
Kelly McCann: Brad Miller, TB, SS
Yesterday, Matthew Freedman wrote about hidden upside and friendly umpires, and today we’ll take advantage of that trend. Brad Miller plays at home in Tampa with Chris Conroy behind the plate. The game has the second-lowest total on the slate at a disgusting 7 runs, ensuring that most players from this game will go overlooked. Yet there is actually some hidden treasure buried in this trash heap. In seventeen games behind the plate in Tampa, Conroy is good for a whopping 10.91 average points and an amazing +4.7 Plus/Minus (on DK) at a 64 percent Consistency. The only team he bets on, er, helps more is Washington.
But we don’t want to rely on umpires for everything so let’s take a deeper look at Miller’s recent play. Projected to be batting second and facing a pitcher of his preferred handedness, Miller has been mashing the ball over the last 15 days. His average batted-ball distance is up 28 feet to a very respectable 235 feet. His hard-hit differential is through the roof right now, up 27 percentage points to a deliciously tasty 58 percent, which is second-best in tonight’s slate. And his exit velocity is up seven MPH to a healthy 96 MPH, tied for third-best in the slate. The bottom line is that Miller is tearing the cover off the ball. With most folks paying up for Coors Field hitters and Josh Donaldson versus a lefty, you might want to consider stacking the economically friendly Rays around Miller. Win all the monies!
Matthew Freedman: Scott Kazmir, LAD, SP
Five days ago, I recommended Kazmir as a tournament play, and that worked out great for everyone . . . who ignored me. The weird thing is that everything I said then basically still applies now. Although (as of 10:30 PM ET on April 26) Kazmir does end up in the optimized DK lineups generated by the CSURAM88 and Bales 2016 models, he’s probably more of a tournament play: His ownership is likely to be nonexistent, given that his three most recent performances have all been categorical Duds. In rostering Kazmir in GPPs, I’m looking for a Black Swan who can help me create unique, leveraged lineups.
On DK, Kazmir has an 84 percent Bargain Rating that is largely the result of the -$1,600 Salary Change that he has endured over the last fantasy month. Additionally, Kazmir is facing a Miami team with an implied Vegas total of only 3.4 runs, and behind the plate he also has Todd Tichenor, an umpire whose presence historically juices pitching performance with an extra +0.5 Plus/Minus. Finally, per our advanced data, Kazmir in his most recent starts has actually been one of the best pitchers in the slate in terms of batted-ball distance, exit velocity, hard-hit percentage and the 15-day/yearlong differentials for all three of those metrics.
At only $6,700, Kazmir is cheaper than the average pitcher with seven Pro Trends. At worst, he offers salary relief. At best, he offers hidden Upside and a whole lot of contrarianism. If you multi-enter GPPs, Kazmir should be rostered in a couple of your GPP lineups.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and every Wednesday for PGA.
