In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s main slate.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
John Daigle: Clayton Kershaw, LAD, SP
There are only so many ways that I can describe Clayton Kershaw’s significance in this slate, but fortunately it’s not as if you had anything else planned for the next few minutes. Note Kershaw’s ridiculous moneyline of -301: Even Vegas tends to favor him as a demigod tonight.
Kershaw’s also projected to allow only 2.3 runs. And if that weren’t enough, the average pitcher priced above $13,000 with double-digit Pro Trends has historically produced a Plus/Minus of +4.85. There were only so many ways to explain Kershaw’s significance tonight, but I feel as if I’ve touched on all of them . . . except for the rest of them.
Check out the rest of John’s recommendations for today in his slate breakdown.
Bryan Mears: David Price, BOS, SP
On the MLB edition of the Daily Fantasy Flex podcast (coming this afternoon), my cohost Mitch Block dropped a stat that pitchers have struggled so far this year to reach value against the Atlanta Braves. I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that even though the Braves aren’t a good team (as shown by their projected .276 team Weighted On-Base Average [wOBA] and 3.2 implied runs), they don’t strike out that often (as shown by their low .225 SO/AB rate in the last year).
This led me to wonder whether it’s best to fade elite strikeout pitchers (like Price) against Atlanta and take elite WHIP guys against them instead (like Dallas Keuchel). The logic goes something like this: Perhaps strikeouts are so priced into pitchers’ salaries that if Price were to be, say, at half of his usual 9.869 K/9 rate, that would make it very hard for him to hit value. Thankfully, we can query this in approximately 10 seconds using our Trends tool. Let’s look at how pitchers in the top quartile of K/9 fare against the Braves as compared to pitchers in the quartile of WHIP.
Elite strikeout pitchers vs. Braves: +1.79
Elite WHIP pitchers vs. Braves: -2.83
Well, that thoroughly debunks my hypothesis. It seems that strikeouts, as always, reign supreme.
Check out the rest of Bryan’s recommended plays in today’s Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, coming soon.
Bill Monighetti: Bartolo Colon, NYM, SP
On a day when Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale, and David Price are scheduled to pitch, I’m obviously going to be recommending Bartolo Colon at pitcher. Admittedly, this play is probably not for the weak of heart. But with another game at Coors Field and several other gas cans to target, Big Bart presents an opportunity to save a few bucks and load up on bats in guaranteed prize pools.
Today, a Reds offense that has only a collective .280 wOBA against righties will be without Jay Bruce once again, leaving Joey Votto as their only really intimidating bat. Colon has been much better at home over the past couple of seasons, posting a +2 Plus/Minus at Citi Field versus a -0.8 on the road. If we look only at home games in which the Mets are favored, Colon’s Plus/Minus rises to +3.6. It’s also good news for Colon that the Reds have an implied run total of 3.4, as Colon has a +3.0 Plus/Minus in games in which his opponent is expected to score 3.5 or fewer runs.
Already a pitcher’s park (as evidenced by its Park Factor of 68 for right-handed pitchers), Citi Field becomes even tougher on batters in colder weather. Over the past couple of seasons, pitchers have made 88 starts at Citi Field in temperatures that were 60 degrees or colder, and they have exceeded their salary-adjusted expectations by an average of 3.5 DraftKings points per start. If you’re going to bypass the elite pitching options in this slate, take a look at Bartolo Colon in an excellent matchup.
Tyler Buecher: Chris Coghlan, OAK, 3B/2B
In a 15-game slate, DFS players will be looking for some values when constructing their lineups. Oakland’s third baseman Chris Coghlan can provide exactly that at only $2,600 on FanDuel and $3,300 on DraftKings. Coughlan leads the position in both wOBA and Isolated Power (ISO) Differential and has an impressive seven Pro Trends. Coghlan’s Fly Ball Percentage has risen 21 percentage points over the past 15 days, and he’s getting an extra 29 feet on batted balls. With three homeruns in his last four games, Coghlan is both seeing the ball well and taking advantage when able to make solid contact.
The A’s are projected to put up 4.7 runs against Detroit’s right-handed pitcher Mike Pelfrey, who owns the slate’s lowest SO/9 and the worst WHIP. His pitch speed has dropped 1.8 miles per hour over the past 15 days to 89.3 MPH. Batting second for Oakland, Coghlan has a favorable spot in the lineup to both drive in runs and get sent home on any base hits with four straight lefties hitting after him.
Tonight’s slate provides plenty of opportunities to mix and match players in lineups, but whenever you can get a value play such as Coghlan it can grant you the flexibility to pay up for other positions.
Brandon Hopper: Vincent Velasquez, PHI, SP
When he takes the mound against the Nationals today, Vincent Velasquez likely won’t be the pitcher we saw two weeks ago when he struck out 16 batters in a complete-game shutout, but we shouldn’t expect his most recent outing to be the norm either. The Mets put together five hits — two of them home runs — to chase the 23-year-old in four innings on April 19. Both home runs Velasquez gave up were on 0-2 pitches, a big no-no that can usually just be chalked up to nothing more than a lack of focus. Important to note, also, is that it was the Mets’ second time seeing Velasquez in 10 days.
The Nationals haven’t seen the young cheese-thrower yet. He’ll enter the game throwing eight percent more strikes during the last 15 days than the last 12 months, which will allow him to throw fewer pitches and work deeper into the game. Advanced stats are on his side, too. Opponents aren’t getting good wood on the ball (a distance differential of -15 feet, a hard hit differential of -5 percent, and an exit velocity one MPH slower). His hard hit percentage of 20 is ranked third in the slate, as is his K/9 ratio of 10.95.
After starting the season at $6,400 on FanDuel and climbing to $9,000, he’s back down to $7,800 on FD with a 93 percent Bargain Rating. Velasquez’s Upside is high, and his tournament ownership will likely be low, given the Nats’ positive splits against righties and the Phillies’ big underdog status.
Matthew Freedman: Johnny Cueto, SF, SP
This is mainly a tournament play for FanDuel, where Cueto has a Bargain Rating of 91 percent and nine Pro Trends. Costing only $9,300 to roster, Cueto could be a money-saving pivot play away from high-priced pitchers like Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer. Additionally, Cueto is likely to have depressed ownership due to his perceived lack of Upside, given his uninspiring 7.101 strikeouts per at bat.
But Cueto actually has unappreciated potential. He has a solid chance of winning this game — the Giants are favored by 1.1 runs — and in this slate the Padres have one of the higher team strikeout rates (.260) and lower team wOBAs (.286). Cueto should benefit from his Park Factor of 100 and the presence behind the plate of D.J. Reyburn, a pitcher-friendly umpire who historically adds +0.4 Plus/Minus to pitching performance.
Additionally, per our advanced data, Cueto has been very solid in his recent starts. Opposing teams are batting his pitches an average distance of only 191 feet, the average velocity of a batted ball is only 88 miles per hour, and only 22 percent of batted balls have qualified as hard hits. Importantly, he’s finding the strike zone, throwing 55 percent of his pitches for strikes. Finally despite having 75 percent Consistency over the last fantasy month, he has experienced a whopping -$1,300 Salary Change. He’s not an elite pitcher, but in this slate he just might be good and cheap enough to be worth using as a contrarian option in some tournament lineups.
Jay Persson: Jordy Mercer, PIT, SS
Mercer is expected to hit leadoff against left-handed pitcher Jorge De La Rosa. Not only will he hit leadoff for the team expected to score the most runs on the entire slate, but he has exceeded his expected points 70 percent of the time over the last 10 days. This consistency — as well as favorable pricing for a Coors Field hitter ($4000 on DraftKings and $3500 on FanDuel) — puts Mercer into strong cash game consideration.
Affordable exposure to Coors Field is necessary on a slate with several aces on the mound. Mercer provides value, as leadoff hitters who are on teams projected at 5.3 runs or more have historically performed +2.81 points over expectation. His .355 wOBA and .121 ISO against LHP are nothing to write home about on this slate, but he has consistently performed much better vs. lefties throughout his career. The platoon advantage, positive lineup order, top Park Factor, and high team total are all factors that should push Mercer to the top of your cash game list.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and every Wednesday for PGA.
