In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s main slate.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
John Daigle: Enrique Hernandez, LAD, OF
Chase Utley has typically been featured as the Dodgers leadoff hitter as of late, but there was a time when Hernandez took that role when the team faced left-handed starting pitchers. If that holds true tonight, Hernandez should be in lineups.
Note his slugging percentage of .822 against said handedness. Additionally, his .296/.280 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and Isolated Power (ISO) Differentials vs. LHP are both top-three among outfielders. With his ridiculous-sample-but-quotable-anyways eight-for-12 record (with two homeruns) against southpaws this season, Hernandez is my top option in cash and tournaments alike.
Check out the rest of John’s recommendations for today in his slate breakdown.
Bryan Mears: Andrew McCutchen, PIT, OF
Because of the incredible force that is Bryce Harper, it seems like really talented guys like Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen — perennial MVP candidates — are living a bit in the shadows this year. That possibility really intrigues me, especially as a tournament player. Anytime I can get a guy as talented as Trout or McCutchen (although he might not be highly undervalued at Coors tonight), sign me up.
And it’s not like those guys are playing poorly. Take McCutchen: His average batted-ball distance this year is at 239 feet, nine feet further than his average last year. In backtesting our new advanced stats, we’ve found batted-ball distance to be quite predictive, and although McCutchen’s player card doesn’t look amazing lately, that particular advanced stat hints that Cutch is doing just fine.
It’s always an interesting GPP strategy to take elite talents in bad situations. I think it’s a very positive move in DFS currently to take guys like McCutchen and Trout in any matchup, as their ownership could potentially be depressed thanks to the shine of guys like Harper and Josh Donaldson.
Check out the rest of Bryan’s recommended hitters in today’s Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.
Jay Persson: Mike Napoli, CLE, 1B
On a slate with expensive pitchers and Coors Field hitters, one must find contrarian plays to differentiate from the pack. Napoli will likely be overlooked as people will gravitate toward exposure at Coors Field. Napoli’s .399 wOBA and .283 ISO vs. LHP immediately stand out among first basemen. In fact, he has the second-highest wOBA Diff of all first basemen in the slate.
If his positive advanced stats aren’t enough to persuade you, then consider his matchup and potential Upside facing Tommy Milone, who has a high HR/9 of 1.325, making Napoli a worthy target for tournament consideration. The Indians currently have an implied total of just 4.0 runs, which is the perfect amount for the public to ignore. Napoli should garner exposure as a standalone player as well as part of an Indians stack that will carry expected low ownership.
Check out the rest of Jay’s recommended hitters in today’s Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.
Tyler Buecher: David Ortiz, BOS, 1B
Editor’s note: This was published before news broke that Ortiz is unlikely to play tonight. If he doesn’t play, obviously do not use him in your lineups.
Top-three in both wOBA and ISO among first basemen tonight, David Ortiz has a favorable matchup against the Braves in Atlanta. With most people likely paying up for pitching with several elite throwers on the mound, I’ll likely be going contrarian by paying up for hitters in tournaments. Ortiz’s strengths line up directly with his opposing pitcher’s weaknesses. Julio Teheran’s ability to force strikeouts has been an issue all season, as opponents are only striking out at a 0.217 clip, fourth-worst on the slate. Opponents are also coming up with a Hard Hit Percentage of 39 percent against Teheran, tied for third-highest on the slate.
Ortiz is a top-five batter in terms of SO/AB and Hard Hit Percentage — two facets of his game that he should be able to exploit against Teheran. With seven Pro Trends, Ortiz is sporting both an average batted ball of at least 235 feet and a fly ball rate of at least 42 percent over the past 15 days. Slugging 0.624 on the season and hitting for extra bases at a top-10 rate, Ortiz is someone I’m looking to go yard in tonight’s matchup as one of the warmest on the slate.
Matthew Freedman: DJ LeMahieu, COL, 2B
They don’t award money for originality. LeMahieu is basically an automatic start, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating and seven Pro Trends. As the projected leadoff batter for a team with an implied total of 6.1 runs, LeMahieu is the highest-rated second baseman in both the Bales and CSURAM88 2016 models. In terms of context, LeMahieu is fortunate in that he has a Park Factor of 100, Weather Rating of 90, zero percent chance of precipitation, a wind that is blowing out at nine miles per hour.
LeMahieu may not be a great tournament play, as over the last fantasy month has hit his Upside only 13 percent of the time, but he has a good chance of getting the job done in cash games, given his Consistency: He has recently achieved his salary-adjusted expectations (per our Plus/Minus metric) 53 percent of the time. His advanced stats, .330 wOBA, and .011 wOBA Differential don’t reveal LeMahieu to be anything close to an elite player, but he is at least a competent base stealer (0.161 stolen bases per game) who should get opportunities to exploit the mediocrity of projected Pirates catcher Chris Stewart, an occasional player whose caught stealing percentage has failed to exceed 25 percent each of the last two years. At only $3,400 on FD, LeMahieu provides a little salary relief without weakening you at an inherently weak position.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and every Wednesday for PGA.
