In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers will use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s main slate.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
John Daigle: Ryan Raburn, COL, OF
Only Nelson Cruz, Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, Mike Trout, and Josh Donaldson finished with a higher wOBA against LHP than Raburn in 2015. And it wasn’t a fluke — he’s recorded a wOBA of .398 or higher vs. lefties in four of his last seven seasons. Although he could be in a more fortuitous position if actually placed higher in their lineup, Raburn’s wOBA and ISO Differentials of .138/.101 are more than capable even at seventh in their batting order. He additionally includes a Bargain Rating of 70% at DraftKings.
Look for more of John’s recommendations for today in his slate breakdown, coming soon.
Bryan Mears: Trevor Story, COL, SS
Let me sell you on Trevor Story while dipping and diving through some strategy talk along the way. Coors Field is, at baseline, very positive for batters – historically all batters have posted a Plus/Minus of +1.76 at that location. What about guys who have been hitting the ball really hard leading up to playing at Coors? Using our Trends tool, batters with a recent hard-hit rate of 45% or higher have posted a Plus/Minus of +2.15 at Coors. I could go on about batters with those filters plus top four in the batting order (+2.31), but I think you get the point – Coors is valuable.
Now, some strategy, as promised. We have two intriguing shortstops tonight at Coors – Corey Seager and Story, both who have very positive splits (+.08 and +.04 ISO differences, respectively) and just positive stats in general. One of them has a hard-hit rate above 45% lately (Story), but one of them is $1,000 cheaper in just as good a spot (Seager). The point of this isn’t to say that Story will be contrarian – he’s a power hitter at Coors Field – but Seager is the easy play here; Story will be much lower owned than he’d normally be because of DraftKings’ weird pricing of the Dodgers guys. When talent, recent advanced stats, and game theory all align like they do for Story tonight – count me in.
Jay Persson: Gio Gonzalez, WSH, SP
On a slate with mostly mid-tier pitchers, Gonzalez stands out as one of the top options of the night. He has the fourth-highest SO/9 and the Nationals are -160 to beat the Twins. However, Gonzalez doesn’t come without some risk — his propensity to lose his command has led to an alarmingly high WHIP at times. This can be illustrated with a below-average Consistency Rating over the past 12 months. His average fastball speed has also decreased 2.0 mph in his previous two starts.
While there are some red flags, Gonzalez still offers value with his strikeout potential and favorable matchup — the Twins are currently implied to score just 3.3 runs. Jon Lester might make for a safer cash-game option, but Gonzalez might be the more ideal contrarian tournament option with lower ownership. Since there is a clear lack of depth in the top tier of pitchers, it makes sense to have a healthy amount of exposure in tournaments. If the chance of precipitation in the Cubs-Reds game increases, then Gonzalez might find himself as the top cash-game option as well.
Tyler Buecher: Michael Conforto, NYM, OF
Michael Conforto is one of my favorite tournament plays tonight if I’m aiming for a mid-tier outfielder that isn’t too pricey. Conforto’s boom-or-bust nature makes him an intriguing tournament play with the Mets favored and expected to score 4.3 runs, but he makes for a viable dart throw if saving for an expensive pitcher. Conforto is expected to hit third for the New York Mets tonight, and the lefty owns a .377 wOBA to go along with a .271 ISO. Both of those numbers rank inside the top 12 of outfielders on tonight’s 15-game slate.
Sporting seven different Pro Trends, Conforto combines a hard-hit percentage and fly-ball percentage both north of 40%. Righty Bud Norris has seen both his pitch speed and strike percentage fall over the past 15 days, while sporting a horrific 1.611 WHIP. Norris is also allowing the third-highest HR/9 rate on the slate, something that Conforto (.052 HR/AB) should be in line to take advantage of tonight.
One of the neat things about FantasyLabs is the ability to create your own trends. Noticing that the hard-hit percentage and fly-ball percentage both added +0.20 points separately, but how did they perform together? Further, what if I added the trend of left-handed batters going against right-handed pitchers?
The results were very favorable, as players that fit this criteria added +1.32 points over their expected point total. Conforto is just one of four outfielders to meet all four of the factors in this trend for tonight’s slate, a trend that’s seen multiple hitters reach 60 FanDuel points. While it may not seem like a large amount of points at first glance, this is just one of many ways that you can utilize our Trends page to further gain an edge on your opponents.
Jonathan Cabezas: Jon Lester, CHC, SP
After a nice break from the chaos, we are back to having to deal with a Coors Field-infused slate. The Dodgers and Rockies are both implied to score well over 5.0 runs Friday, so we can safely expect them to carry the highest tournament exposure. If you want to gain some exposure to this game, you will need to find some lower-owned players to pair with them. This brings me to David Ortiz, who has a .340 ISO and .632 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers – both of which rank in the top three at his position. His splits don’t appear to be reflected in his pricing, as he has scored a full point higher against right-handed pitchers than he has when facing lefties. Adding to his intrigue is his opposing pitcher — Collin McHugh’s has a recent 2.3 mph decrease in velocity, which is shown in our Player Models.
The Red Sox are implied to score only 3.9 runs, which ranks in the bottom half of Friday’s slate, and with Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Reynolds, and Ben Paulsen expected to absorb a significant amount of the first base ownership, Ortiz is likely to fly under the radar. It should be made a priority to mix in some lower-owned players around your Coors Field exposure in tournaments, and David Ortiz could serve that purpose well tonight.
Matthew Freedman: Scott Kazmir, LAD, SP
Don’t go overboard on rostering Kazmir in tournaments — and don’t even think about rostering him in cash games — but be sure to have at least a little exposure to him in guaranteed prize pools, because he is likely to have almost nonexistent ownership and could give you some unique Black Swan lineups if only one thing happens: The Rockies suck. That’s not especially likely, but it’s possible. More importantly, the Rockies are likely to be over-rostered and Kazmir under-rostered in proportion to the odds of the improbable actually occurring.
I don’t need to talk about all of the reasons why you shouldn’t roster Kazmir. Why you should roster him (in moderation) — at least on DraftKings — is his 90 percent Bargain Rating. Further, in only three starts Kazmir has experienced a slate-high and nearly ridiculous Salary Change of -$1,700. That’s a lot. True, two of Kazmir’s three starts this year have been categorical Duds, but over the last 12 months he has still averaged a not-atrocious 13.8 fantasy points per game and (per our advanced data) he has the slate’s fourth-highest recent strike rate with 54 percent. I’m not saying that Kazmir is good, but he probably deserves to be priced higher than $6,600. At a minimum, he could provide decent salary relief — and, if the Rockies suck and thereby destroy a high percentage of tournament lineups, Kazmir could be the contrarian key to a unique, GPP-winning lineup.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and every Wednesday for PGA.
