MLB Playoffs DFS Breakdown (Wednesday, 10/2): Can Matt Olson Go Yard vs. Charlie Morton?

The MLB Playoffs continue on Wednesday with the American League Wild Card game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics at 8:09 p.m. ET.

The playoffs mean the single-game formats will take center stage, so let’s start by taking a brief look at the different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel.

Format

FanDuel will use its traditional single-game format. That means you’ll have to roster one MVP, one All-Star and three utilities. Your MVP will get a 2x scoring bonus while your All-Star will get a 1.5x scoring bonus. You don’t need to pay additional salary to roster players in those premium spots.

FanDuel also features only hitters. You won’t have to worry about choosing between any of the pitchers on either roster and can focus simply on which batters you think will score the most fantasy points.

The DraftKings format is a little more complicated. For starters, you have to roster six players instead of five, and you’ll have to choose between batters and pitchers. DraftKings also features a captain, who earns a 1.5x scoring multiplier, but will cost 1.5x their traditional salary. For example, Max Scherzer cost $12,600 as a utility on Tuesday’s slate, but his price jumped to $18,900 if you rostered him at Captain.

Relief pitchers also become viable options in this format. They aren’t as dominant as they were in previous seasons — last year they earned more points for innings pitched and strikeouts than starting pitchers — but they still have the potential to provide excellent value at their current salaries. Most of the relievers are priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, so pitchers who have the potential to pitch multiple innings are particularly intriguing.

Pitchers

The Rays will hand the ball to Charlie Morton in today’s contest, and he has put together a career year at 35 years old. He’s pitched to a 3.05 ERA, 2.81 FIP, and 11.10 K/9, all of which represent new career highs. He also tallied 6.1 Wins Above Replacement, which ranked fourth among AL starters.

Morton is a slight underdog today, but he still has a lot of appeal in this matchup. The A’s are somewhat strikeout prone — their projected lineup has posted a 25.0% K rate vs. right-handers over the past 12 months — and Morton is an excellent strikeout pitcher.

He also enters this contest in elite Statcast form, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -42 feet and -10 percentage points. Historically, stud-caliber pitchers with comparable Statcast marks have averaged 21.92 DraftKings points per game (per the Trends tool).

Morton also dominated in two previous starts vs. the A’s this season, pitching to a 0.68 ERA and averaging 25.70 DraftKings points per start.

Sean Manaea is favored in this matchup, but he’s still the riskier fantasy option. He’s made just five starts after missing the majority of the season recovering from a torn labrum. Overall, he pitched just 29.2 MLB innings during the regular season.

That said, he’s been excellent when he has been able to take the mound. He’s pitched to a 1.21 ERA while striking out a career-high 9.10 batters per nine innings. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus in four of five starts, resulting in 24.0 DraftKings points per game.

Still, I’m a little skeptical he can keep pitching at that level. Some of his advanced metrics suggest he’s been very lucky this season, particularly his .194 batting average on balls in play. His 3.42 FIP is still solid, but it’s more than two runs higher than his traditional ERA.

The Rays also represent a difficult matchup. They finished eighth in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season, and their projected lineup has struck out in just 23.5% of at bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months.

Both of these teams have been known to employ the “bullpening” strategy in the past, but it seems like both managers want to get as much as possible from their starters today. Manaea figures to be on the shorter leash, as he’s thrown more than 90 pitches in just two of five starts this season.

For the relievers, I’m focusing my attention strictly on guys who are priced at $3,000 on DraftKings. A.J. Puk fits that description for the A’s, and he could play a big role in this contest. He’s considered a top-20 prospect, according to FanGraphs, and he posted a 3.18 ERA and 10.32 K/9 over 11.1 September innings.

There are more options to choose from for the Rays. Nick Anderson was a midseason acquisition from the Marlins, and he’s been absolutely dominant this year. He was particularly effective against right-handed pitchers — limiting them to a .183 batting average — and he racked up the third-most strikeouts among MLB relievers. He has a good shot of getting into this game at some point.

Former Athletic Emilio Pagan could also factor into the equation, but Kevin Cash could opt to go with traditional starters like Tyler Glasnow or Blake Snell as well.

Batters

Tampa Bay Rays Lineup

• 1. Yandy Diaz (R)
• 2. Tommy Pham (R)
• 3. Austin Meadows (L)
• 4. Travis d’Arnaud (R)
• 5. Matt Duffy (R)
• 6. Avisail Garcia (R)
• 7. Willy Adames (R)
• 8. Kevin Kiermaier (L)
• 9. Mike Brosseau (R)

The Rays are opting to go with a righty-heavy lineup to start today’s contest, which makes sense considering the matchup vs. Manaea. That said, don’t be surprised to see a few of these options lifted for pinch hitters if a right-hander enters the game. Joey Wendle, Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi, and Eric Sogard could all make appearances at some point, likely at the expense of guys like Diaz, Duffy, Garcia, and Brosseau.

Pham offers arguably the safest floor and highest ceiling among the Rays batters. He crushed left-handers this season, posting a 160 wRC+, which gives him the advantage in the early innings against Manaea. He was also above average against right-handers this season, so you don’t have to worry about him getting dominated in the later innings.

Meadows is another strong option. He’s at a disadvantage vs. Manaea, but he still posted a 120 wRC+ vs. southpaws this season. If he does see an at bat vs. a right-hander out of the pen, he becomes an elite option. He posted a 152 wRC+ vs. right-handers while increasing his walk rate and decreasing his strikeout rate.

d’Arnaud was a massive bust during his time with the New York Mets, but he’s turned into an excellent hitting catcher for the Rays. He enters this contest in strong form: His 234-foot distance represents an increase of +20 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He’s also crushed left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .374 wOBA and .276 ISO.

It’s tough to fully trust Diaz since he may not play the full contest, but he should get at least two at bats vs. Manaea. That’s enough for him to potentially do some damage given his .414 wOBA and .275 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months.

Oakland Athletics Projected Lineup

• 1. Marcus Semien (R)
• 2. Matt Chapman (R)
• 3. Matt Olson (L)
• 4. Mark Canha (R)
• 5. Ramon Laureano (R)
• 6. Seth Brown (L)
• 7. Khris Davis (R)
• 8. Jurickson Profar (S)
• 9. Sean Murphy (R)

Olson is probably my favorite hitting target on this slate. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. Morton, and Olson posted a 150 wRC+ with 25 HRs against right-handers this season. Morton also relies heavily on his curveball, fastball, and sinker — he combined to throw those pitches 86.3% of the time — and Olson posted a batting average of at least .280 against all three pitch types this season.

Chapman enters this contest in the best recent form for the A’s. He’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +11 feet and hard hit differential of +11 percentage points. He has also fared better against right-handers than left-handers this season, and his salary is lower than some of his teammates’ despite occupying a premium spot in the lineup.

Brown looks like an amazing source of savings on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,000, so he should be very easy to fit into your lineups. He’s also done some damage with his bat against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .383 wOBA and .197 ISO. That said, he will likely be one of the highest-owned players on the slate.

Semien will occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup, which obviously makes him an appealing target. He also has had success against Morton throughout his career. He’s posted a .357 batting average with two extra base hits, and his .938 OPS vs. Morton trails only Olson’s among the A’s projected starters. He owns the highest ceiling projection in our MLB Models outside among all hitting options.

Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.

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Pictured above: A’s 1B Matt Olson (28)
Photo credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports