Wednesday’s League Division Series main slate has four games and locks at 2:08 pm E.T.
Pitchers
Two starters require $9,000 or more of your potential lineup’s salary on FanDuel, including an Atlanta Braves starter I am going heavy on:
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $10,300, SD @ LAD
- Ian Anderson (R) $9,500, MIA @ ATL
Note: The home teams are not at their home parks. Games are taking place in southern California or Texas.
Vintage Clayton Kershaw showed up against the Milwaukee Brewers last week. DFS players were rewarded with a 71-point outing on FanDuel, but a repeat performance is not likely in play today. Kershaw faces the San Diego Padres in Arlington, Texas, a team in that he logged a quality start and 41 points against last month. Kershaw is the No, 3 option today according to the Bales Model.
Does facing the Padres away from hitter-friendly Dodgers Stadium and Petco Park matter? The Padres ranked in the top 10 in batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, and Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against lefties on the road. Their offense also struck out at a bottom-10 clip in the same situations. The Padres scored 20 runs in two games against the Texas Rangers in Arlington, albeit against a poor pitching staff. Kershaw’s postseason issues have been documented here before, but his great start last week is an encouraging sign that the future Hall of Famer can still dominate.
The Brewers are not the Padres, so Kershaw gives me pause.
I pondered whether Ian Anderson could follow up teammate Max Fried’s superb start against the Cincinnati Reds last week. He did, and the Braves and many DFS players (hi, hello) reaped the benefits. Like Kershaw, I do not expect a repeat performance, but I do expect Anderson to outscore him. Anderson toes the rubber against the Miami Marlins and their mediocre offense.
The Marlins posted an 88 wRC+ against righties away from home and struck out 25.8% of the time during the regular season. The Marlins also did well taking walks (9.5%), and that is key to their success against Anderson; he walked 14 batters over 32.1 innings pitched in 2020. Anderson was impenetrable in every other facet of his game.
Anderson is the Bales Model’s number two pitcher and the Braves are heavy -214 favorites.
Value Plays
I have one today, and you must scroll to the bottom of the pitcher list on FanDuel: Jesus Luzardo ($6,600 FanDuel, $7,500 DraftKings). The A’s rookie got the quick hook against the Chicago White Sox last round and managed just 16 FanDuel points. In two games against the Astros this season, Luzardo has one win, one quality start, 12 strikeouts in 12.2 innings pitched, and has averaged 36 FanDuel points.
The Astros hit .201 and produced a 72 wRC+ against southpaws in road games. Houston puts the ball in play against lefties and had the 11th-best strikeout rate. Luzardo is charged with halting an Astros offense that has 15 runs in their two ALDS games and is one win away from the ALCS. Count me in.
I must note that Masahiro Tanaka ranks atop the Bales Model today, but he has allowed three or more runs in each of his last four starts, including consecutive starts of four innings. I do not trust Tanaka in a pivotal game three with the series tied.
Notable Stack
The Los Angeles Dodgers do not show up atop the Bales Model stack option because a starter has not been announced for the Padres. Note that this section could change depending on who starts for San Diego.
The Atlanta Braves have arguably the hottest offense in the postseason and are atop the batting stack on FanDuel:
- Freddie Freeman (L)
- Ozzie Albies (S)
- Marcell Ozuna (R)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (R)
Total Salary: $16,500
It is time to pay up for Ronald Acuna Jr. and figure out the rest later. Ozzie Albies slots into this stack because of his handedness, but it is tough to ignore what Travis d’Arnaud has done for the Atlanta Braves. He is $800 cheaper than Albies but will see a spike in usage in lineups after being under 10% of lineups yesterday. Marlins starter Pablo Lopez has been an unexpected success in 2020 but has been Jekyll/Hyde against the Braves. In his last two starts against Atlanta, Lopez has posted 39 and -10 FanDuel points.
The Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays rate second and third using the Stacking Tool, and it is important to get pieces of each offense in lineups today. Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Michael Brantley continue to rate highly, while the return of Austin Meadows makes him the top hitter on the Bales Model.
Other Hitters
Zack Grienke is no longer starting game three for the Astros, making Athletics hitters a little more viable today. Jose Urquidy has a future in the Astros rotation, but this will be a different kind of start today – win and advance. Tommy La Stella and Marcus Semien are Bales Model studs, and the first two games of this series have hit the over. I expect Oakland to win today, so my exposure to A’s hitters may be higher than most.
Aaron Hicks is not hitting bombs like Giancarlo Stanton, but he does have five hits in four postseason games, adding two RBI’s and two walks. His FanDuel price tag continues to be around $3,000, making him an obvious play to get a Yankees hitter in lineups.
Jake Lamb ($2,500 FanDuel, $3,200 DraftKings) is ice-cold at the plate, but he remains a cheap play against a right-handed heavy starting rotation in Houston.
Justin Turner is $3,100 on FanDuel and hits in the heart of the Dodgers batting order. He is a top 15 overall play according to the Bales Model.
Tommy Pham has four extra-base hits in 30 at-bats against left-handed pitching in 2020 and hit .300. In more than double the at-bats against righties, he has one extra-base hit and hit .179. He is another cheap player to use and gets lineup exposure to the Padres.
Pictured above: Ronald Acuna Jr. #13 of the Atlanta Braves
Photo credit: Michael Starghill/MLB Photos via Getty Images
