Welcome to what may be the craziest week in MLB playoff history! Today’s main slate features the four American League Wild Card games and lock at 2:00 pm E.T.
Pitchers
I wanted to look at the pitchers for today’s main slate by game as opposed to price. Salary still plays a role with how the Bales Model values each starter, but one of the two higher-priced pitchers today falls into the value category on such a short slate.
New York Yankees (-104) at Cleveland Indians (-104)
Gerrit Cole ($10,900 on FanDuel, $8,600 on DraftKings) faces Shane Bieber ($11,200 FanDuel, $9,000 DraftKings) in the game of the night, and best Wild Card Series. The Yankees are slight favorites to win the series heading into play tonight.
Despite winning the pitching triple crown and averaging more points per game on both DFS sites, Bieber does not rank higher than Cole on the Bales Model Player Rater. Cole rates the highest on DraftKings and second on FanDuel in large part because of his strikeout potential and matchup against Cleveland’s offense.
Cleveland had the second worst offense in the American League, according to Offensive WAR and its Team WAR rates well because of a top-10 defense. The Indians are not boosting their chances of winning by playing at home against righties either; the offense strikes out at a top-10 rate and their 83 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) is tied fourth worst in baseball.
There are two ways the Indians can neutralize Cole: take pitches and hit the ball hard. The Indians saw the most pitches per at-bat in the A.L., and Cole is allowing the highest exit velocity of his career.
Shane Bieber has a tough task facing the Yankees’ lineup. It boasts the A.L. batting average and home run leaders and gets a healthy Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Judge barely hit over the Mendoza line upon his return, but the Yankees scored double digit runs in five of their final 13 games.
Bieber’s advantage comes from facing New York away from the Big Apple. New York’s wRC+ is 66 points lower on the road than at home. The Yankees’ best power hitters hit from the right side, meaning they must contest with Cleveland’s own ‘Green Monster.’
Cole is the value of the two starters, but Bieber is the A.L. Cy Young favorite and will find success if he fits into your lineup.
Chicago White Sox (-120) at Oakland Athletics (+111)
The White Sox were the only lower-seeded team with minus odds to win their series as of Sept. 28. The market shifted and now the juice is with the A’s.
Lucas Giolito ($9,200, $8,300) faces Jesus Luzardo ($7,700, $8,300) in a lop-sided pitching matchup. Giolito is prices out below the elite pitchers for the evening and has an opportunity to mute an average A’s offense, according to Offensive WAR and wRC+. The A’s don’t do anything differently at home compared to their season averages, but the offense does an excellent job of taking walks and limited strikeouts. Giolito can be erratic at times, and the A’s must hope tonight is one of those nights.
In case you have not heard, the White Sox are 14-0 against lefty starters in 2020. Chicago also posted the second best wRC+ against lefties on the road in baseball. Jesus Luzardo has to limit home runs (1.37 home runs allowed per 9 innings) to Chicago and not allow them to figure out how to take walks; the White Sox were one of the ten worst teams at taking free passes this season. Tim Anderson’s 358 wRC+ on the road against left-handed pitching this season, the best this season by 40 points.
Giolito and Luzardo are the same price on DraftKings, so it is no surprise Luzardo is the second lowest rated pitcher on both sites according to the Bales Model. I could see Giolito topping ownership among pitchers on this main slate.
Houston Astros (+151) at Minnesota Twins (-164)
Zack Greinke may have his hands full against Kenta Maeda and the Minnesota Twins. Greinke rates as the third worst pitcher on both sites using the Bales Model and only has one Pro Trend on his side. Maeda has a slate-leading six Pro Trends, most notably a Consistency Rating over 75. Only Shane Bieber has the same Pro Trend. Greinke allows 58.8% of balls in play to be in the air and must avoid a similar trend against the Twins. Minnesota’s offense has the 9th best slugging percentage at home.
Kenta Maeda is a pitcher who will go lower owned because DFS players will see the opponent. The Astros offense was league average in 2020 despite remaining superior at avoiding strikeouts. Their walk rate was bottom 10 in the regular season. If you want to be different and play Astros batters, their 43 Team Value Rating and 3.3 projected runs ties for third-lowest tonight; you will not be able to roster a decent amount of players and expect upside based on their prices.
I will build lineups with Maeda to gain exposure to consistent, higher-priced hitters.
Toronto Blue Jays (+171) at Tampa Bay Rays (-187)
Matt Shoemaker is the game one starter for Toronto. He has allowed eight home runs and nine walks in 28.2 innings pitched. I will not use a pitcher that allows walks against a team with a 12.4% walk rate against righties at home. Hard pass.
Blake Snell is the Bales Model favorite on FanDuel’s main slate in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Stadium. Tampa Bay projects to outscore Toronto by 1.2 runs and are heavy favorites. Snell’s ERA is 1.15 runs better at home than away with only an eight-inning differential between road and home starts. Toronto is slightly below average offensively on the road against southpaws (95 wRC+) but was bottom half of the league in strikeout percentage against lefties away from home.
The Blue Jays will have to find a way to get the ball in the air against Snell because he allowed two at home all season; Toronto has a top 10 slugging percentage against lefties on the road.
Notable Stack
It is okay to leave salary on the table in short slates, but it only helps if you maximize every position. That means I plan on fading a four-player stack of the Minnesota Twins to save money using the second-best FanDuel stack using the Bales Model:
- Brandon Lowe (L)
- Joey Wendle (L)
- Randy Arozarena (R)
- Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (L)
- Total Salary: $12,100
The Rays stack is $1,200 less than the Twins and projects to score 1.3 fewer runs. That extra money allows you to spend a little more at pitching if you choose to. You can roster Snell and spend up on hitters in plus matchups.
Other Hitters
I mentioned Tim Anderson and his ridiculous wRC+ against lefties. Lock him in.
I want a piece of the Twins offense, and Max Kepler is the most bang for your buck. The lefty is the second best hitter on the Bales Model and will have Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, and Josh Donaldson behind him in the lineup to secure that he sees good pitches. He is a solid combo of power and run production from the leadoff spot.
I am taking a trip down #NarrativeStreet here, but if I want any Cleveland hitter today, it is Francisco Lindor. He has been a minus hitter this season, but this could be his last ride in Cleveland.
Pictured above: Kenta Maeda #18 of the Minnesota Twins
Photo credit: Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images
