Today’s slate features an elimination game, and a chance for another team hitting their way towards a stranglehold on their series. Tonight’s slate locks at 6:05 pm E.T.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-176) at Atlanta Braves (+161)
Julio Urias has the tough task of preventing the Atlanta Braves from taking a commanding 3-0 series lead. The southpaw has pitched well in relief this postseason, collecting two wins and 11 strikeouts over eight innings pitched. Urias’ biggest issues coming into tonight’s start is an elevated strikeout percentage due to relieving, a catastrophically low groundball rate on balls in play, and allowing a career-high exit velocity on balls in play in 2020.
The Braves are hitting the way the Dodgers were expected to through two games. The Dodgers tried to rally last night and came up short. Kyle Wright will get the chance to put a stranglehold on the Dodgers’ offense before the bullpen tries to recover from last night’s debacle. Wright pitched six shutout innings against the Marlins last round, but his peripherals are just as shaky as Urias.
Wright finished 2020 with a 5.68 walks per 9 innings and managed to walk two batters in the NLDS in six innings. He also allowed 1.66 home runs per 9, leading to 19.4% of fly balls to leave the yard.
The Over/Under for runs in Game 3 is set at 9.5, and the over is more than likely in my opinion. The Bales Model figured this into its rating too, as Urias and Wright have the lowest pitcher ratings tonight. Urias may have win equity in an important game for the Dodgers, but I will be using a pitcher from tonight’s ALCS game.
Tampa Bay Rays (-133) at Houston Astros (+123)
Here is to hoping Zack Greinke’s arm issues are in the past because tonight’s pitching matchup with Tyler Glasnow is going to be fun to watch. The Bales Model favors Glasnow on FanDuel but has the two in a dead heat on DraftKings. The total for this game is eight runs but the final score has finished at seven or below in the previous three games.
The leverage is with Greinke because the Braves have the highest strikeout per at-bat rating among the final four teams, and Greinke projects to be in less than 20% of lineups. Glasnow’s projection is set at 41+%. The Astros win or go home and having their ace on the mound matters. I expect to have both pitchers scattered across multiple lineups tonight.
Notable Stack
The Dodgers remain the top stack on FanDuel, and that is a good thing in a game with a high Over/Under:
- Max Muncy (L)
- Justin Turner (R)
- Mookie Betts (R)
- Cody Bellinger (L)
Total Salary: $14,700
All four Dodgers rate as top 10 hitters today, and there are two other Dodgers that rate highly as well. Corey Seager and Will Smith are top 10 hitters, and Joc Pederson just misses the top 10, ranking 11th.
The Tampa Bay Rays rate second on the Bales Model’s Stack Tool. Hard pass because Randy Arozarena is the only player in their four-man stack that has more than one hit this series. That includes Austin Meadows and Ji-Man Choi, who do not have a hit against Houston. I mentioned that all three games in the Rays-Astros have had low run totals, and I do not expect that to change tonight.
Other Hitters
If Joc Pederson is in the lineup tonight, his $2,500 is a lineup saver. On short slates players with home run potential stand out, and the bottom of the Dodgers’ lineup has been productive. Ronald Acuna Jr. is a reverse splits hitter, meaning he is hitting right-handed pitching better than left-handed. Stars shine brightest when it matters most, but if Urias can pitch deep into the game, Acuna is less likely to produce.
Mike Zunino is not a good hitter. But if he is in the Rays lineup tonight, he is a cheap power source who has had big hits throughout the playoffs and has a higher walk rate against lefties.
Carlos Correa has a storied postseason career and I want to keep getting him into lineups. He had his worst game last night and still scored DFS points. When hitting 6th in the batting order, Correa is hitting .270 with two home runs and 13 RBI’s this season; he projects to hit 6th again tonight. Marcell Ozuna hit a home run once every eight at-bats against lefties this season; 43.8% of the fly balls he hit were home runs.
Pictured above: Mookie Betts #50 of the Los Angeles Dodgers
Photo credit: Tom Pennington/Getty Images
