This is the sixth piece in a series of articles looking at Statcast data for batters and pitchers.
Statistics like exit velocity, batted ball distance, and hard hit rate are still relatively new to many daily fantasy players. FantasyLabs Co-Founder Jonathan Bales recently put out a video on how to use batted ball data within our Player Models. This series uses the suite of Labs Tools to explore the DFS value of Statcast data.
Batted Ball Distance
Using our Trends tool, Pro subscribers can easily backtest the relationship between batted ball distance and FanDuel pitchers over the last 12 months:
While 80 percent of this trend falls between 191 and 220 feet, we’re looking primarily for outlier performance that can be leveraged. Unsurprisingly, pitchers with shorter batted ball distances allowed look like great cash-game plays, with their +7.37 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Conversely, pitchers who allow longer batted ball distances aren’t just players to avoid. They also might be pitchers to target with stacks.
Recent Batted Ball Distance
Here’s the 15-day batted ball data for pitchers:
As we might expect, ownership for the elite subgroup is significantly higher than for the others. (Pro Subscribers can review exposure levels in our DFS Ownership Dashboard.) What’s intriguing is that the short-term studs have higher ownership than the long-term studs. In this situation, DFS players seem to be valuing short-term above long-term data.
It’s also notable that the short-term duds have higher ownership than their long-term counterparts. In general, what we see is that the market of DFS players tends to view short-term data through the most optimistic perspective possible.
Distance Differential
Looking at the difference between a pitcher’s average batted ball distance over the past 15 days versus the past 12 months, we see a diminished impact:
While there is a positive correlation between distance differential and production, that correlation is not as strong as it is for long-/short-term distance and production. However, the pitchers with desirable differentials still have relatively elevated ownership percentages. Thus, there could be a benefit to fading pitchers with good differentials in favor of those with low batted ball distances but mediocre differentials, especially since ownership across differential ranges is relatively flat.
Putting It All Together
There’s a direct correlation between a pitcher’s ability to suppress batted ball distance and the extent to which he has DFS success. This is something to keep in mind when using our Lineup Builder as you create your DFS teams. When used in combination with other Statcast metrics, Labs statistics, and Vegas data, batted ball distance is likely to provide a significant edge.
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Previous installments of the Statcast(unate) Event series can be accessed via my author page.
