The MLB Ownership Review is a regular series in which we review the ownership dynamics of a previous slate.
On Sunday, June 11, the main slate consisted of eight games headlined by Chris Archer and Carlos Carrasco, who were heavy home favorites in parks without any major weather concerns (per our MLB Lineups page). Meanwhile five teams were implied for at least 5.0 runs, and the Yankees and Cubs in particular were implied for 6.0 and 7.0 runs.
On a slate with two stud pitchers and lineups, how did the ownership shake out?
June 11th Ownership Analysis
Pitchers
The following ownership data is from our DFS Ownership Dashboard, with which Pro subscribers can review ownership trends across guaranteed prize pools of all stakes shortly after lineups lock:
Archer was easily the highest-owned pitcher Sunday, which wasn’t surprising, as he had the highest projected ownership in our Player Models. Per our Vegas Dashboard, Archer faced an Athletics lineup implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs, and he had a 7.9 K Prediction — the highest mark in the main slate. Additionally, Tropicana Field’s roof was closed, so he was in a pitcher-friendly environment, whereas Carrasco had to deal with winds gusting to right field at 11 miles per hour.
Although Archer and Carrasco collectively dominated the slate, a number of cheaper pitchers still had double-digit ownership rates. Jake Arrieta, Adam Wainwright, Ivan Nova, and David Paulino were home favorites, and Aaron Nola had the slate’s lowest fly ball rate and second-lowest batted ball distance and exit velocity.
Hitters
Hitter ownership was clearly driven by teams with high Vegas totals:
Eight of the 10 highest-owned hitters were Cubs and Yankees, and most weren’t expensive. None of the Cubs were priced over $5,000 on DraftKings, resulting in an all-time-high Team Value Rating of 105. The Yankees, meanwhile, had a TVR of ‘just’ 79, the slate’s third-highest mark. Per our MLB Trends tool, hitters have posted a +1.2 Plus/Minus and 45.3 percent Consistency Rating with implied totals of at least six runs since 2014.
Takeaways
On a slate with two high-priced pitchers and two lineups with implied totals of at least six runs, the public focused primarily on the best of the breeds:
- Archer was the chalk thanks to his high-strikeout upside and home matchup against the team with the lowest implied total on the slate.
- Half of the 10-highest owned hitters were Cubs, who had the slate’s highest implied total but not one batter priced above $4,900.
Moving forward, be sure to use the FantasyLabs Tools to monitor the ownership patterns of slates.
