On Tuesday, May 2, the main slate consisted of 15 games headlined by marquee aces. Chris Sale, Jon Lester, Corey Kluber, and Justin Verlander all took the mound costing at least $10,000 on DraftKings.
All four guys rank among the top-30 pitchers (minimum three starts) in average DraftKings ownership this season, but that wasn’t the case Tuesday:
Per our DFS Ownership Dashboard (where Pro subscribers can review ownership trends across guaranteed prize pools of all stakes), Sale and Lester’s ownership was within a few percentage points of their season-long averages. Kluber and Verlander, however, were owned at just 5.39 and 2.91 percent.
What factors played a role in the ownership distribution of the four elite pitchers? Let’s find out.
May 2nd Ownership Review
Opponent Implied Run Totals
An integral part of daily fantasy research is looking at Vegas data, which we display each slate in our Vegas Dashboard.
We also display some Vegas data in our Player Models. Lester had the best matchup on Tuesday based on the implied runs of each pitcher’s opponent:
Lester not only benefited from facing a Phillies lineup implied to score a slate-low three runs, but he also was supported by a Cubs lineup implied for 4.6 runs. Kluber and Sale each faced teams implied for modest totals of 3.6 runs, but Sale was clearly in a better position thanks to the Red Sox’s slate-high implied total of 5.5 runs.
Weather
Sale and Lester each found themselves in games without significant weather issues. Sale lucked out with a 61 degree temperature and no wind and rain. Lester had to deal with some wind, but the game’s 41 percent chance of rain never led to a delay, and he wasn’t pulled until his pitch count reached triple digits.
On the other hand, Kluber and Verlander both had to deal with winds gusting out to left field at 11 miles per hour:
You can view projected and confirmed lineups as well as general weather information on our Lineups page. There was good reason to fade Kluber and Verlander due to the high winds, as pitchers have historically posted a -0.43 Plus/Minus on DraftKings in games with winds gusting out at over 10 miles per hour (per our Trends tool). It’s also possible that Kluber and Verlander experienced depressed ownership because they were facing each other.
Location
Within our Trends tool, Pro subscribers have the ability to look up past ownership data. Here’s each pitcher’s historical home/away ownership differential prior to Tuesday’s slate:
Sale, Lester, and Kluber have all historically had higher ownership at home, but Verlander has had higher ownership away from Comerica Park. Given that Sale and Lester were at home (where they have higher ownership) and Verlander and Kluber were respectively at home and away (where they have lower ownership), these long-term trends may have played a role in their May 2 distribution.
Takeaways
Predicting ownership in a slate with four stud pitchers is difficult, but we have identified several key factors that might prove predictive in the future:
- Low opponent and high team totals can drive up pitcher ownership, especially when a pitcher is facing a team with a slate-low total.
- Weather, specifically wind speed and chance of precipitation, can play a large role in ownership distribution. For more information on DFS weather, check out our MLB Weather Factors piece.
- Pitcher-specific home/away ownership splits can often be drastic. Often (but not always) pitchers have higher ownership at home.
Moving forward, be sure to use the FantasyLabs Tools to monitor the ownership patterns of slates with several high-priced pitchers.
