Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Lines updated as of 6:35 pm ET.
Reds (+102) at Phillies (-110) — 7:05 PM EST
CIN notable absences/replacements: Adam Duvall –> Phillip Ervin. Tucker Barnhart –> Devin Mesoraco.
CIN Notes: The Reds are currently implied to score 3.7 runs against Pivetta and the Phillies. Still, each of Gennett, Winker, Mesoraco, and Hamilton have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Overall, Winker, Votto, Gennett, and Ervin form the main slate’s third-highest rated four-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. Pivetta has historically struggled to limit big hits, as he ranks among the slate’s bottom-three pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 12 months. Both offenses will have to battle through the second-most pitcher-friendly Weather Rating in Wednesday’s main slate.
PHI notable absences/replacements: Rhys Hoskins –> Scott Kingery.
PHI Notes: The Phillies will roll with Hernandez, Kingery, and Herrera at the top of the order for their matchup against the Reds. Kingery will look to continue to hit the ball hard, as he ranks among the slate’s top-two shortstops in average batted ball distance and exit velocity over the past 15 days. Still, Castillo has an overall good matchup against a Phillies lineup that has combined to post a .299 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months – the second-lowest mark in Wednesday’s main slate. He carries a slate-high 8.2 K Prediction along with an 80 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and he could benefit from the second-most pitcher-friendly Weather Rating in Wednesday’s main slate.
Blue Jays (+120) at Orioles (-130) — 7:05 PM EST
TOR notable absences/replacements: Josh Donaldson –> Yangervis Solarte. Devon Travis –> Mpho’ Gift Ngoepe. Russell Martin –> Luke Maile.
TOR Notes: The Blue Jays will rest each of Donaldson, Travis, and Martin for their matchup against the Orioles. Their implied total has fallen to 4.2 runs since opening at 4.4, and the Blue Jays have combined to post a mediocre .304 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Gausman has a 6.1 K Prediction and averaged 8.9 K/9 over the past 12 months. Exposure to him should be focused on DraftKings, where Gausman’s $6,000 price tag comes with a 78 percent Bargain Rating and a +3.19 Projected Plus/Minus – the second-highest mark in Wednesday’s main slate. Only Granderson and Solarte have posted positive ISO and wOBA splits vs. righties over the past 12 months among the Blue Jays’ top-five batters in the order.
BAL notable absences/replacements: None.
Yankees (-108) at Red Sox (-100) — 7:10 PM EST
NYY notable absences/replacements: None.
BOS notable absences/replacements: Andrew Benintendi –> Mitch Moreland.
BOS Notes: Benintendi will rest against the Yankees, so the Red Sox will roll with Betts, Devers, and Ramirez at the top of their order. They’re set up well against Tanaka, who has allowed an average batted ball distance of 224 feet with a 46 percent fly-ball rate through two starts this season. While he’s averaged 10.08 K/9 over the past 12 months and carries a solid 6.9 K Prediction, Tanaka has a tough matchup against a Red Sox lineup that has combined to strike out every .219 at bats since the beginning of last season – tied for the second-lowest mark among all pitchers. Still, the Red Sox-Yankees’ matchup currently has the most pitcher-friendly Weather Rating in Wednesday’s main slate.
Mets (-135) at Marlins (+125) — 7:10 PM EST
NYM notable absences/replacements: Travis d’Arnaud (partial tear of UCL in right elbow) –> Kevin Plawecki. Michael Conforto –> Jay Bruce.
NYM Notes: d’Arnaud could undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery, while Conforto will receive a routine day off. The Mets still offer plenty of upside against Garcia and the Marlins, as they’re currently implied to score 4.6 runs and are tied with the Orioles for the main slate’s fourth-highest Team Value Rating on DraftKings. Overall, Cabrera, Cespedes, Frazier, Bruce, and Plawecki form the slate’s third-highest rated five-man stack in the Bales Model. Frazier and Flores in particular are set up well, as they’ve each posted positive wOBA and ISO differentials vs. southpaws over the past calendar year. Still, both offenses will have to deal with estimated wind gusts of 13 miles per hour coming in from left field.
MIA notable absences/replacements: None.
Pirates (+165) at Cubs (-180) — 8:05 PM EST
PIT notable absences/replacements: None.
CHC notable absences/replacements: Ian Happ –> Victor Caratini.
CHC Notes: The Cubs will roll with Almora, Bryant, and Contreras at the top of the order for their matchup against the Pirates. They’re currently implied to score five runs and boast the third-highest Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and Fanduel. Overall, Bryant, Contreras, and Zobrist form the slate’s fourth-highest rated three-man stack on FanDuel in the Bales Model. They’re set up well against Brault, who has allowed a 1.54 WHIP over the past calendar year – the third-worst mark in Wednesday’s main slate. Brault is the second-lowest rated pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the Bales Model.
Athletics (+160) at Dodgers (-174) — 10:10 PM EST
OAK notable absences/replacements: Matt Olson –> Mark Canha. Jake Smolinski –> Stephen Piscotty..
OAK Notes: Canha will bat second against the Dodgers in place of Olson. The Athletics are currently implied to score a slate-low 3.2 runs against Wood, who carries a strong 7.2 K Prediction and has averaged 8.84 K/9 over the past calendar year. He’s the highest-rated pitcher on FanDuel in the Bales Model thanks in large part to a slate-high +5.7 Projected Plus/Minus. Wood will look to continue to limit big hits, as he ranks among the top-three pitchers in Wednesday’s main slate in average batted ball distance and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. He joins Steven Brault and David Price as the only pitchers on Wednesday’s main slate that have allowed less than one home run per nine innings pitched since the beginning of last season.
LAD notable absences/replacements: Yasiel Puig –> Joc Pederson.
LAD Notes: Puig will receive his first rest day of the season, so the Dodgers will roll with Taylor, Pederson, and Seager at the top of their order against the Athletics. They carry upside throughout the lineup, as each of Kemp, Grandal, Pederson, and Bellinger have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. They’re currently implied to score a respectable 4.3 runs, although the Dodgers have combined to strike out every .289 at bats over the past 12 months – the second-worst mark in Wednesday’s main slate. Both Mengden and Wood will benefit from playing in the slate’s second-most pitcher-friendly ball park.
Pictured above: Kevin Gausman
Photo Credit: Andy Marlin – USA Today Sports
