Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Giants (+122) at Diamondbacks (-132) — 9:40 PM EST
Giants out: Evan Longoria (tweaked ankle)
Giants in: Pablo Sandoval
Evan Longoria has been scratched Tuesday after tweaking his ankle and could be out for a couple days. Longoria will be replaced in the lineup and at third base by Pablo Sandoval. The Giants are currently implied to score 3.8 runs against Patrick Corbin, who has averaged 9.7 K/9 and a 1.395 WHIP over the past 12 months. He’s set up well against a Giants lineup that has combined to post a .305 wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months – the third-worst mark in Tuesday’s main slate. Still, Corbin doesn’t offer a ton of strikeout upside, as he carries a 5.6 K Prediction and faces a Giants lineup that has combined to strike out on just .216 of their at bats since the beginning of last season. The roof will be open at Chase Field, leading to the Giants-Diamondbacks’ matchup having one of the slate’s top-five most hitter-friendly Weather Ratings in Tuesday’s main slate.
Cardinals (+115) at Cubs (-125) — 8:05 PM EST
Cubs out: Ben Zobrist (tight back), Victor Caratini
Cubs in: Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo (tight lower back)
Ben Zobrist has been scratched due to a tight back, so Ian Happ will now lead off against the Cardinals. Anthony Rizzo will bat third for a Cubs lineup currently implied to score 4.3 runs. Rizzo has finished his stint on the disabled list and forms one third of the slate’s fifth-highest rated three-man stack in combined ISO along with Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber. Overall, each of Rizzo, Bryant, and Schwarber have posted a wOBA of at least .360 with an ISO over .250 against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Still, Adam Wainwright has done a great job limiting big hits this season, ranking among the slate’s top-five pitchers in fly-ball and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. Wainwright will benefit from weather conditions that result in the slate’s third-most pitcher-friendly Weather Rating. Overall, current forecasts call for a game-time temperature of 38 degrees with estimated wind gusts of six miles per hour blowing in from center field.
Red Sox (+150) at Angels (-163) — 10:07 PM EST
Red Sox out: Tzu-Wei Lin
Cubs in: Mookie Betts (left ankle contusion)
Mookie Betts is back in the lineup and will leadoff against the Angels. The entire Red Sox lineup faces an uphill battle, as they’re currently implied to score just 3.5 runs against Shohei Ohtani, who has allowed just four total hits in 13 innings pitched this season. Still, Ohtani will take on a Red Sox lineup that has combined to post a .332 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months – the fifth-highest mark in Tuesday’s main slate. He also doesn’t carry much strikeout upside, as Ohtani has a mediocre 4.3 K Prediction and faces a Red Sox lineup that has combined to strike out every .215 at bats over the past 12 months – the fifth-lowest mark in Tuesday’s main slate. Overall, each of Eduardo Nunez, Hanley Ramirez, and Andrew Benintendi have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. righties over the past calendar year.
Rockies (+131) at Pirates (-142) — 7:05 PM EST
Pirates out: Adam Frazier
Pirates In: Sean Rodriguez
Sean Rodriguez will take Adam Frazier‘s spot as the leadoff hitter for a Pirates lineup currently implied to score a respectable 4.4 runs. Current forecasts call for estimated wind gusts of 11 miles per hour out to left field, which could be troublesome for Chad Bettis if he continues to struggle to force batters to keep the ball on the ground. Overall, he ranks among the slate’s bottom-four pitchers in average fly-ball and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, and Corey Dickerson are particularly set up well, as they’ve each posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Indians (-180) at Twins (+165) — 7:10 PM EST
Twins out: Byron Buxton (migraine)
Twins In: Robbie Grossman
The Twins scratched Byron Buxton due to a migraine. Max Kepler will slide over to center field, and Robbie Grossman will now bat eighth and start in right field against the Indians. It’s more good news for Corey Kluber, who has a fantastic matchup against a Twins lineup currently implied to score a slate-low 3.2 runs. Kluber is the highest-rated pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the Bales Model, although he also carries slate-high ownership rates on both sites. Still, he has a slate-high 9.9 K Prediction and has averaged 11.93 K/9 over the past 12 months. Kluber has pitched at least seven innings in all three of his starts this season while allowing an average batted ball distance of just 182 feet – the second-best mark in Tuesday’s main slate.
Nationals (-111) at Mets (+103) — 7:10 PM EST
Nationals out: Brian Goodwin (sore left wrist), Anthony Rendon (sore left big toe)
Nationals in: Moises Sierra, Wilmer Difo
Brian Goodwin and Anthony Rendon will each miss another start as they continue to recover from their various injuries. They’ll be replaced in the lineup by Moises Sierra and Wilmer Difo, who will bat fifth and seventh, respectively, for a Nationals lineup currently implied to score 3.9 runs. Overall, the Nationals have combined to post a .354 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months – the second-highest mark in Tuesday’s main slate. They’re set up well against Zach Wheeler, who ranks among the slate’s bottom-five pitchers in both WHIP and home runs allowed per nine innings pitched over the past calendar year. Overall, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Sierra, and Michael Taylor form the slate’s best four-man stack in combined ISO. Sierra is especially in play on DraftKings, where his $2,300 price tag comes with a 75 percent Bargain Rating and a minimal 2-4 percent projected ownership rate.
Mets out: Michael Conforto
Mets in: Jay Bruce (left foot)
Michael Conforto will receive a rest day, so Jay Bruce will start in right field and bat fifth against the Nationals. They have a tough matchup against Gio Gonzalez, as only Todd Frazier and Amed Rosario have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. southpaws over the past 12 months. Overall, the Mets have combined to post a .295 wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers over the past calendar year – the second-worst mark in Tuesday’s main slate. Gonzalez will look to continue to limit big hits, as he’s allowed an average exit velocity of 88 miles per hour with a 20 percent hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. He’s the second-highest rated pitcher in the Bales Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel thanks in part to a strong 8.5 K Prediction.
Rangers (+140) at Rays (-152) — 7:10 PM EST
Rangers out: Jurickson Profar (concussion)
Rangers in: Carlos Tocci
Jurickson Profar remains in the concussion protocol, so the Rangers will roll with Shin-Soo Choo, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Nomar Mazara at the top of their order. They’re currently implied to score just 3.8 runs and have a tough matchup against Yonny Chirinos, who has allowed zero earned runs and just seven hits in 14.1 innings pitched this season. Chirinos carries a strong 6.8 K Prediction and offers strikeout upside against a Rangers lineup that has combined to strike out every .301 at bats over the past calendar year – the highest mark in Tuesday’s main slate. Exposure to Chirinos should be focused on DraftKings, where his $4,700 price tag comes with an 87 percent Bargain Rating and a +5.36 Projected Plus/Minus. The only issue is he figures to be popular in GPPs, as Chirinos is currently one of just five pitchers in Tuesday’s main slate with a projected ownership rate above 12 percent.
Rays out: Matt Duffy (strained right hamstring)
Rays in: Brandon Snyder
Matt Duffy has been placed on the 10-day disabled list, so the Rays recalled Brandon Snyder from Triple-A. He’ll start at third base and bat sixth for a Rays lineup currently implied to score 4.8 runs – tied for the second-highest mark in Tuesday’s main slate. They carry a slate-high Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Adeiny Hechavarria, C.J. Cron, Wilson Ramos, and Rob Refsnyder form the team’s highest-rated four-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. They’re set up well against Matt Moore, who has posted a 1.618 WHIP and allowed 1.457 home runs per nine innings pitched over the past calendar year. Moore has struggled to limit big hits this season, ranking among the slate’s bottom-two pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 15 days.
Pictured above: Anthony Rizzo
Photo Credit: Jasen Vinlove — USA Today Sports
