Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
White Sox (+185) at Rays (-202) — 7:10 PM EST
Rays out: Tommy Pham (foot)
Rays in: Ji-Man Choi
Tommy Pham was diagnosed with a fractured right foot after leaving Thursday’s game early, but the team is optimistic that he will return within a month. In his absence, Jake Bauers will shift to left field and Ji-Man Choi will enter the lineup at designated hitter with CJ Cron playing first base. Despite Pham being out of the lineup, the Rays have seen their implied run total increase from 4.7 runs to 5.1 runs — the sixth-highest run total in Friday’s 14-game main slate. Choi and catcher Michael Perez rank high in the Bales Model by offering up massive value on FanDuel as both hitters cost just $2,300. Opposing pitcher Lucas Giolito has struggled with a bottom-five recent hard-hit percentage and HR/9 rate in the previous year. However, five Rays hitters display negative batted-ball statistics over the last 15 days and the team suffers from a poor Park Factor rating playing at home.
Braves (+132) at Mets (-143) — 7:10 PM EST
Mets out: Wilmer Flores
Mets in: Austin Jackson
Wilmer Flores is receiving a pre-planned day of rest vs. the Braves and righty Anibal Sanchez on Friday. Jose Bautista will take over at first base, Todd Frazier will move up to the cleanup spot, and Austin Jackson will re-enter the outfield rotation in Flores’ absence. Brandon Nimmo will bat leadoff for the second straight game after Amed Rosario was the primary table setter to end August. Neither the Mets nor the Braves are presently implied to score at least 4.0 runs, and Bautista is the only hitter from either side with at least five DraftKings Pro Trends. The Mets’ current lineup has the third-lowest team wOBA and second-highest SO/AB rate, and Sanchez has limited hitters to a smothering 188-foot recent batted-ball distance. Starters have averaged a FantasyLabs’ +2.32 FanDuel Plus/Minus against the Mets over the last month — during which time the Mets have ranked in the bottom-five in wOBA and last in hard-hit rate and BABIP.
Angels (+228) at Indians (-250) — 7:10 PM EST
Angels out: Mike Trout (wrist), Luis Valbuena
Angels in: Eric Young, Kaleb Cowart
Mike Trout will sit for the second straight game due to a right wrist contusion, and Luis Valbuena will receive a normal day of rest vs. the Indians and right-hander Mike Clevinger on Friday. Eric Young will man center field, and Shohei Otani will bat third after missing the previous two games. The Angels are one of 11 teams presently implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs in the main slate, creating plenty of alternative pitching options to Clevinger, who has the ninth-highest K Prediction but the fifth-highest salary on DraftKings while facing a lineup with the highest combined wOBA. Rain might be a mild deterrent according to the forecast, but it doesn’t appear threatening. Kole Calhoun is the highest-rated Angel in the Bales Model, and he’s relatively cheap on FanDuel. He claims the third-highest recent batted-ball distance and FanDuel points per game over the last month at his position.
