Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Nationals (-115) at Phillies (+106) — 7:05 PM EST
Nationals in: Bryce Harper (illness)
As expected, Bryce Harper will return to the lineup on Monday after missing Sunday’s game with an illness. He’ll hit in his usual three-hole spot in the order and the Nationals are presently implied to score 4.7 runs against the Phillies and right-hander Zach Eflin. Harper carries the fifth-highest rating in the Bales Model on FanDuel and has positive batted-ball statistics over the last 15 days, ranking sixth out of all outfielders with a recent hard-hit percentage of 54%. His matchup is especially favorable against Eflin, who has allowed hitters to produce a recent hard-hit percentage of 40% — the fourth-worst mark out of all starting pitchers in Monday’s seven-game slate. The Nationals are coming off a 15-run explosion on Sunday after scoring a combined zero runs in the previous three games, but could still see low ownership in GPP’s with a projected run total outside of the top five offenses.
Athletics (+183) at Astros (-200) — 8:10 PM
Astros in: George Springer (sore left quad)
George Springer was activated off the disabled list and will leadoff vs. the Athletics and left-hander Brett Anderson on Monday after missing the past week with a sore left quad. The Astros are not one of the four teams presently implied to score at least 5.0 runs, but the one Astro who pops in the Bales Model is Alex Bregman. When situated in the top three spots of the lineup, Bregman has averaged a FantasyLabs’ +1.34 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 48.5% Consistency Rating. He also leads the team with a 230-foot recent batted ball distance and a 53% recent fly ball rate. His 0.400 wOBA against lefties over the last 12 months is the second-highest on the Astros, but his $5,400 salary on DraftKings will surely tank his overall ownership on a seven-game slate. Anderson has allowed two combined runs in his last four starts, but his slate-low 5.277 SO/9 rate diminishes his appeal as a potential SP2 punt option.
