Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Nationals (-148) at Mets (+136) — 7:10 PM EST
Mets in: Jay Bruce (strained right hip)
Mets out: Devin Mesoraco (stiff neck)
Jay Bruce will make his first start since June 17 against the Nationals. He’ll bat fifth for a lineup presently implied to score a respectable 4.1 runs, although the Mets have combined to post a mediocre .297 wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Only Jose Bautista has posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. southpaws over the past calendar year among the team’s starters. Any exposure to Bruce should be focused on FanDuel, where his $2,000 price tag comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating and a 0-1 percent projected ownership rate. Nationals southpaw Gio Gonzalez will look to do a better job limiting big hits, as he ranks among the bottom-five pitchers in both average batted ball distance and exit velocity allowed over the past 15 days. While current forecasts call for estimated wind gusts of seven miles per hour blowing out to left field, the Nationals-Mets’ matchup presently boasts the second-most pitcher-friendly Weather Rating in Friday’s main slate.
Red Sox (-132) at Rays (+122) — 7:10 PM EST
Red Sox in: Steve Pearce
Red Sox out: Mitch Moreland (left knee contusion)
Mitch Moreland won’t suit up Friday due to a bruised left knee, so the Red Sox will roll with Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and Steve Pearce at the top of the order for their matchup against the Rays. They’re presently implied to score a strong 4.3 runs and have combined to post a slate-high .345 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. They’re particularly stacked towards the bottom of the order, as each of Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, Ian Kinsler, Eduardo Nunez, Blake Swihart, and Jackie Bradley Jr. have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. righties over the past calendar year. Exposure to the Red Sox should be focused on FanDuel, where each starter boasts a Bargain Rating of at least 70 percent. Still, righty Diego Castillo has done a great job limiting big hits recently, ranking among the top-four pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days.
