Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Braves (-113) at Pirates (+104) — 7:05 PM
Pirates in: Starling Marte
Starling Marte didn’t play in the last two games for undisclosed reasons, but he’s back in the lineup vs. the Braves and right-hander Julio Teheran on Wednesday. Marte will bat second while Francisco Cervelli hits cleanup and Josh Bell slides down to the six hole. The Pirates are one of seven teams presently implied to score no more than 4.0 runs in the main slate, and many of their hitters maintain lackluster Statcast data. The lone exception is Adeiny Hechavarria, who is batting eighth and leads the team with a 245-foot recent batted ball distance. Alas, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations once in the last eight starts and he has the lowest year-long wOBA in the lineup. Teheran has limited hitters to a 193-foot batted ball distance and 29% hard hit rate in the last two outings, but his 4.9 K Prediction suppresses his upside.
Indians (-108) at Red Sox (-100) — 7:10 PM EST
Indians in: Edwin Encarnacion (right hand contusion)
Edwin Encarnacion was activated from the disabled list and will bat cleanup vs. the Red Sox and lefty Brian Johnson on Wednesday. The Indians’ 4.6 implied total is the fifth-highest mark on the main slate, but the Indians don’t offer much value when considering teams worth stacking. Their hitters with positive ISO and wOBA splits against lefties over the last year reside at the end of the order, and Yan Gomes is the only hitter in the lineup with a positive recent batted ball distance differential and hard hit rate differential. Gomes is one of the highest-rated catchers in the Bales Model, but his 12% Monthly Consistency Rating on DraftKings derails his cash-game relevance. At $2,400 on FanDuel, Gomes could venture into punt-play territory. Johnson has allowed a 45% recent fly ball rate — the second-highest mark on the slate.
Cubs (-180) at Tigers (+165) — 7:10 PM EST
Cubs out: Addison Russell (finger)
Cubs in: Daniel Murphy
Daniel Murphy will make his Cubs debut on Wednesday and hit leadoff after being acquired from the Nationals on Tuesday. Addison Russell has been placed on the 10-day disabled list due to a sprained left middle finger. The Cubs are currently implied to score the second-most runs (5.5) in Wednesday’s main slate as they finish up a three-game series in Detroit. The matchup is exceptional as opposing pitcher Francisco Liriano has allowed hitters to record the highest hard-hit percentage (59%) over the last 15 days. Liriano also suffers from the second-worst WHIP (1.586) and fourth-worst HR/9 rate (1.427) in the last year out of all starting pitchers on Wednesday. Murphy is the highest-rated Nationals hitter in the Bales Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel despite negative splits against left-handed pitchers over the previous year. Javier Baez is significantly cheaper on FanDuel with a 95% Bargain Rating and leads the team with a .242 ISO against lefties.
