Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Yankees (+102) at Red Sox (-110) — 7:10 PM EST
Red Sox out: Xander Bogaerts (right hand contusion)
Red Sox in: Brock Holt
Xander Bogaerts was hit in the hand by a pitch on Tuesday, and despite the negative MRI, he’s out of the lineup vs. the Yankees on Thursday. Ian Kinsler will move up to the five-hole and Brock Holt will take over at shortstop. The Red Sox are presently implied to score 5.1 runs — tied for the second-highest mark in the main slate — but they don’t offer much value as a stackable option. Only three hitters in the lineup have a positive wOBA differential against lefties over the past 12 months, and even fewer can claim a positive ISO. Yankees starter CC Sabathia allowed nine runs and three homers combined in his previous two starts before landing on the disabled list, and Mookie Betts could be a solid play as he leads the Red Sox with 0.467 wOBA, 0.336 ISO, 238-foot recent batted ball distance, and 52% recent hard hit rate.
Braves (-154) at Mets (+142) — 7:10 PM EST
Braves out: Ender Inciarte
Braves in: Adam Duvall
Adam Duvall will make his team debut on Thursday after being traded to the Braves earlier in the week. He’ll enter the lineup in left field and hit fifth while Ender Inciarte sits and Ronald Acuna shifts to center field against left-hander Jason Vargas. The Braves are currently implied to score 4.8 runs and Duvall ranks third in the lineup with a .226 ISO against lefties over the last year. Vargas carries the worst WHIP (1.675) and HR/9 rate (2.27) out of all starters in Thursday’s main slate, and a Braves stack could go overlooked with a middle-of-the-pack run total. Acuna and Freddie Freeman are rated first and second overall in the Bales Model on FanDuel as both players benefit from a Bargain Rating of at least 70%. Johan Camargo also warrants tournament exposure with a team-high .270 ISO against lefties, and Vargas has allowed multiple home runs in four of his 10 starts this season.
