Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Giants (+101) at Reds (-109) — 1:10 PM
Giants out: Buster Posey
Giants in: Nick Hundley
Not only is Buster Posey resting on Sunday, but Brandon Belt is batting leadoff for the first time in his career. Nick Hundley will be situated behind the plate. The Giants are presently implied to score 4.2 runs vs. the Reds and right-hander Luis Castillo on Sunday, and every hitter in the lineup has a Bargain Rating of at least 82% on FanDuel for the afternoon tilt. Lefties have a 0.384 wOBA against Castillo this season while his WHIP has spiked to 1.65. Lefties Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford, and Belt are the highest-rated Giants in the Bales Model, and all three lead the team in wOBA against righties over the last 12 months. Belt’s Statcast data doesn’t provide any reassurance for rostering him today, but he’s averaged 10.52 FanDuel points per game against righties on the road this season.
Orioles (+232) at Indians (-255) — 1:10 PM EST
Indians out: Francisco Lindor
Indians in: Erik Gonzalez
Francisco Lindor will rest for Sunday’s day game against the Orioles and right-hander Yefry Ramirez. Erik Gonzalez will enter the lineup at shortstop while Greg Allen slides up to the leadoff spot for the fourth time this season. With Lindor’s absence, the Indians implied run total has dropped by 0.3 runs, but the team still provides plenty of upside with the fifth-highest run total (5.4) in Sunday’s main slate. Allen rates as a top-five outfielder in the Bales Model on FanDuel as he benefits from a 98% Bargain Rating at a cost of just $2,400. Despite hitting seventh, Jason Kipnis offers a way for contrarian team stacks and has favorable batted-ball statistics over the last 15 days. Ramirez has recorded a bottom-five recent fly ball and line drive percentage and carries the second-worst HR/9 rate (1.603) out of all starting pitchers on Sunday.
Rockies (+117) at Braves (-127) — 1:35 PM EST
Rockies out: Carlos Gonzalez, Ian Desmond
Rockies in: Gerardo Parra, Ryan McMahon
Carlos Gonzalez and Ian Desmond will both receive a day off on Sunday as Gerardo Parra and Ryan McMahon enter the lineup. David Dahl will draw his fifth consecutive start in the outfield as the Rockies continue to find him regular playing time. With an implied run total of 3.8 runs playing on the road, the Rockies don’t offer much appeal in tournaments while suffering from a 34 Team Value Rating on DraftKings. Parra and Dahl are significantly cheaper on FanDuel, but opposing right-handed pitcher Anibal Sanchez has been tougher on left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters throughout his career. Sanchez is currently tied for the third-most projected strikeouts (6.3) in Sunday’s main slate and makes for a great pivot from higher-priced pitchers in Mike Clevinger and JA Happ.
Brewers (+103) at Cardinals (-111) — 2:15 PM
Brewers in: Ryan Braun (tight right rib cage)
Ryan Braun will return to the lineup after missing the previous two games due to a tight right rib cage, and he’ll bat sixth vs. the right-hander John Gant on Sunday. The Brewers are presently implied to score 4.2 runs, and despite Gant not rating well in the Bales Model, he ranks near the top in WHIP and HR/9 rates on the main slate. Gant’s strikeout efficiency isn’t as pronounced, which truly limits his appeal — as does facing a lineup with the third-lowest SO/AB rate. Among all hitters on the slate, Jesus Aguilar ranks third with a 265-foot recent batted ball distance and second with a 62% recent hard hit rate. Unfortunately, his production is clouded by a 50% dud rate over the last month on DraftKings, where he costs $5,200. His utility translates well in tournaments.
