Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Red Sox (-312) at Orioles (+281) — 1:05 PM EST
Red Sox out: Xander Bogaerts (jammed left pinkie), Tzu-Wei Lin (sore ribs)
Red Sox in: Brock Holt. Sandy Leon
Xander Bogaerts is dealing with a jammed left pinkie and won’t suit up Sunday, while Tzu-Wei Lin remains out with sore ribs. The Red Sox will roll with Mookie Betts, Brock Holt, and Steve Pearce at the top of the order for their matchup against the Orioles. They’re presently implied to score an impressive 5.6 runs and are especially in play on FanDuel, where they boast the fifth-highest Team Value Rating in Sunday’s main slate. Overall, Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Mitch Moreland form the main slate’s fourth-best three-man stack in combined ISO over the past 12 months. Righty Alex Cobb will have his hands full with a Red Sox lineup that has combined to post a slate-high .336 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year. Still, Cobb has done a great job limiting big hits recently, ranking among the main slate’s top-two pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days.
Diamondbacks (-126) at Reds (+116) — 1:10 PM EST
Reds in: Joey Votto (right knee), Preston Tucker (soreness)
Joey Votto and Preston Tucker have each missed time recently with their respective right knee and general soreness injuries, but they’ll bat second and seventh Sunday for a Reds lineup presently implied to score a respectable 4.3 runs. Each of Jose Peraza, Votto, Scooter Gennett, and Tucker have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Votto in particular is set up well against righty Zack Godley, as his .412 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year is the second-highest mark in Sunday’s main slate. Exposure to Votto should be focused on FanDuel, where his $3,500 price tag comes with an 82 percent Bargain Rating and a low 2-4 percent projected ownership rate. Godley has historically done a good job limiting big hits, as he ranks among the top-five pitchers in Sunday’s main slate in average batted ball distance, fly-ball rate, and home runs allowed per nine innings over the past 12 months. Of course, both offenses could benefit from estimated wind gusts of six miles per hour blowing out to right field.
