Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Diamondbacks (-130) at Reds (+120) — 7:10 PM EST
Reds in: Joey Votto (sore right knee)
Reds out: Preston Tucker (soreness)
Joey Votto will play through his sore right knee and bat second for a Reds lineup presently implied to score a solid 4.5 runs. Preston Tucker will get the day off to deal with general soreness. The Reds are particularly in play on FanDuel, where their Team Value Rating is tied for the third-highest mark in Friday’s main slate. Overall, they’ve posted a .325 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year – tied for the sixth-highest mark in Friday’s main slate. Still, their upside is mostly limited to the top of the order, as only Jose Peraza and Votto have posted positive wOBA and ISO differentials vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months among Reds starters. They’ll face off against Clay Buchholz, who has allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his last 10 starts. He’ll need to do a better job limiting big hits, as he ranks among the main slate’s bottom-six pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 12 months. The Diamondbacks-Reds’ matchup currently has the third-most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Friday’s main slate.
Mariners (+180) at Astros (-196) — 8:10 PM EST
Astros in: Carlos Correa (stiff back)
The Astros will roll with Tony Kemp, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa at the top of the order and are presently implied to score 4.5 runs against the Mariners. Correa will suit up for the first time since June, 25 and look to continue to mash righties, as he’s posted .332 wOBA and .205 ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year. Exposure to the Astros should be focused on FanDuel, where every starter except Martin Maldonado has a Bargain Rating of at least 70 percent. Tony Kemp in particular is set up well with a +0.61 Projected Plus/Minus to go with a low 2-4 percent projected ownership rate. They’ll face off against righty Mike Leake, who has done a great job forcing hitters to keep the ball on the ground recently, Overall, he’s the only pitcher in Friday’s main slate to rank among the top-six arms in both ground-ball and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. The problem is Leake boasts an underwhelming 4.2 K Prediction and has averaged just 5.9 K/9 over the past 12 months.
