Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Yankees (-160) at Blue Jays (+147) — 1:07 PM EST
Yankees out: Aaron Hicks (leg)
Yankees in: Clint Frazier
Aaron Hicks left Saturday’s game early due to leg cramps and will be held out on Sunday in favor of Clint Frazier, who will be making his seventh start of the season. Miguel Andujar will slide up to the cleanup spot for the first time this season after Hicks was in the four-hole in each of the last two games against a left-handed pitcher. Even with Hicks out of the lineup, the Yankees are still in a fortunate position with a healthy 5.1 implied run total as they lead the league in wOBA and ISO against southpaws this season. Giancarlo Stanton makes for one of the strongest plays on the slate by leading all hitters in wOBA and ISO, and he also benefits from the second-highest Park Factor percentile. Opposing pitcher Ryan Borucki has yet to give up a home run in his first 13 innings pitched this season and has held hitters to the lowest average batted-ball distance over the last 15 days.
Blue Jays out: Curtis Granderson
Blue Jays in: Kendrys Morales
Curtis Granderson will receive a day off on Sunday after leading off the previous 10 games against a right-handed pitcher. After resting on Saturday, Teoscar Hernandez will return to the outfield and hit leadoff while Kendrys Morales hits cleanup and stays in the lineup at designated hitter. The Blue Jays are currently implied to score just 4.0 runs as they take on right-hander Domingo German. Hernandez carries the highest rating on the team in the Bales Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel with positive wOBA and ISO splits as well as a favorable spot in the lineup. He also leads the team with a 41% hard hit percentage over the last 15 days and makes for an intriguing tournament option on FanDuel with a 76% Bargain Rating. German also provides a solid case for tournament consideration with a slate-high 11.429 K/9 rate over the last year, and he has benefitted from positive batted-ball statistics in the previous 15 days.
Rangers (+108) at Tigers (-117) — 1:10 PM EST
Rangers out: Elvis Andrus
Rangers in: Ronald Guzman
Elvis Andrus, Delino DeShields Jr., and Robinson Chirinos have all been given a normal day of rest vs. the Tigers on Sunday. Jurickson Profar will replace Andrus at shortstop and in the two-hole while Ronald Guzman will enter the lineup in Andrus’ absence. Shin-Soo Choo has reached base in 46 straight games, making him a cash-game staple. Over that span, he’s averaged a FantasyLabs’ +3.65 FanDuel Plus/Minus. He leads all outfielders in the main slate with a 254-foot recent batted ball distance, and he ranks second at his position with a 56% recent hard hit rate. The Rangers are presently implied to score 4.4 runs and are facing a pitcher in Michael Fulmer who generates plenty of ground balls. Conversely, he’s allowed a 39.4% hard hit rate over the last month and lefties have cultivated a 1.29 HR/9 rate against Fulmer this season — two qualities which favor Choo.
Marlins (+168) at Nationals (-183) — 1:35 PM EST
Nationals out: Anthony Rendon
Nationals in: Mark Reynolds
Anthony Rendon and Pedro Severino will rest the day after the Nationals scored 18 runs, and Rendon will be replaced at third base by Mark Reynolds, who accumulated 10 RBI yesterday. Juan Soto will move down to the three-hole and Adam Eaton will return to the leadoff spot against the Marlins and right-hander Trevor Richards on Sunday. The Nationals are one of six teams presently implied to score at least 5.0 runs, and even though Richards has depressed home runs, he has the fourth-highest year-long WHIP (1.55) and fourth-highest recent hard hit rate allowed (41%) among starters in the main slate. Reynolds carries a negative wOBA against righties over the last 12 months, but he costs $2,700 on FanDuel and should be considered as a cheap first baseman in most formats.
Phillies (+124) at Pirates (-134) — 1:35 PM EST
Phillies out: Cesar Hernandez (foot)
Phillies in: Jesmuel Valentin
Cesar Hernandez is dealing with a foot injury and will miss his second consecutive game on Sunday. Jesmuel Valentin will once again draw the start at second base and hit seventh while Andrew Knapp replaces Hernandez in the leadoff spot for the first time this season. The remainder of the lineup is standard and the Phillies are currently projected to score 4.2 runs against the Pirates and right-handed pitcher Nick Kingham. Kingham got rocked in his previous start by allowing three home runs and eight hits in just three innings. Knapp ranks as the 16th-best overall hitter on FanDuel thanks to a salary of $2,200, making him the most affordable leadoff hitter on the slate. Exposure to cleanup hitter Carlos Santana could also prove worthwhile as he has excelled with Statcast data over the last 15 days, but the entire Phillies team suffers from a poor Park Factor percentile at PNC Park.
Red Sox (-225) at Royals (+206) — 2:15 PM EST
Red Sox out: JD Martinez
Red Sox in: Steve Pearce
J.D. Martinez will receive a respite during Sunday’s afternoon match vs. the Royals. He’ll be replaced as the designated hitter and in the three-hole by Steve Pearce. Rafael Devers is the only hitter in the lineup who doesn’t claim at least five DraftKings Pro Trends for a Red Sox team implied to score a slate-best 5.9 runs. They’ll face righty Heath Fillmyer, who is making a spot start after Jakob Junis was placed on the disabled list earlier today. Fillmyer’s stats in the minors have been mediocre — 6.0 SO/9 and 1.63 WHIP at the AAA level. The Red Sox have the second-highest Team Value Rating on FanDuel (86), and their top-four hitters account for the second-highest rated stack in the Bales Model. Sandy Leon offers a solution as a cheap catcher despite batting eighth. He leads the Red Sox with 10 DraftKings Pro Trends and costs only $3,000.
