Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Mets (-125) at Pirates (+115) — 7:05 PM EST
Pirates out: Josh Bell (strained left oblique)
Pirates in: Starling Marte, Jose Osuna
Starling Marte missed the previous two games after suffering a bruised left hand, but he’ll bat second against the Mets and righty Jacob deGrom on Saturday. However, Josh Bell, who left Friday’s game due to a tight left side, has landed on the disabled list and been replaced at first base by Jose Osuna. The Pirates are presently implied to score 3.5 runs — only the third-lowest total on the main slate — and they’re facing a pitcher who has pitched 8.0 innings in each of his last three outings. deGrom isn’t the most expensive option, but his recent Statcast data is solid and he opposes a lineup with the second-lowest combined wOBA. deGrom’s primary issue in the last two starts has been a 47% fly ball rate allowed, but that’s counteracted by his 85 MPH recent exit velocity allowed. deGrom is a solid cash-game option, and Gregory Polanco may offer some upside as a seldom-owned outfielder in tournaments due to his 241-foot recent batted ball distance combined with a 55% recent fly ball rate and 40% recent hard hit rate.
Nationals (-154) at Marlins (+142) — 7:10 PM EST
Nationals out: Adam Eaton
Nationals in: Michael Taylor
Adam Eaton will receive a routine day off on Saturday and Michael Taylor will replace him in center field despite facing a right-handed pitcher. Trea Turner moves up to the leadoff spot with Bryce Harper in the two-hole, as Anthony Rendon remains on the paternity list. Ryan Zimmerman is back in the lineup at first base after alternating starts with Matt Adams, and the Nationals are currently projected to score 4.8 runs against the Marlins and righty Trevor Richards. Even with a favorable run total, there should be caution in rostering too many Nationals players as seven hitters have negative average batted-ball distance differentials over the last 15 days. Marlins Park is also among the worst in the league for batters with an abysmal Park Factor rating, and Richards has limited opposing hitters to a 0.672 HR/9 rate in the previous year.
Dodgers (-130) at Braves (+120) — 7:10 PM EST
Braves out: Ozzie Albies
Braves in: Charlie Culberson
Ozzie Albies will rest on Saturday as Charlie Culberson draws the start for the sixth time in the last seven games. The Braves are currently implied to score just 4.3 runs but have had success against left-handed pitcher Alex Wood in previous matchups. Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis are both 6-for-11 against Wood in their careers, while Tyler Flowers is 7-for-11 with eight RBI. Flowers has historically crushed lefties with a .494 wOBA over the last year and leads the team with a 50% hard-hit percentage in the previous 15 days. Despite being left-handed, Freeman has positive splits against lefties and benefits from a friendly Park Factor rating compared to right-handed hitters. Wood has allowed hitters to post a 51% hard-hit percentage in the last 15 days — the second-worst mark out of all starters in Saturday’s main slate.
Diamondbacks (-155) at Padres (+143) — 8:40 PM EST
Diamondbacks in: Eduardo Escobar
Eduardo Escobar will make his Diamondbacks debut vs. the Padres and right-hander Tyson Ross on Saturday. He’ll bat fifth and man third base. The Diamondbacks are presently implied to score an unimpressive 4.2 runs in the main slate, but Escobar leads hitters in the lineup with a 0.371 wOBA and 0.292 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. He’ll also get the benefit of batting left-handed, the more advantageous side of the plate for hitters at Petco Park. Lefties have a 0.369 wOBA against Ross this season, which bodes well for five of the hitters in the batting order. Lefties in the first five spots of the lineup have historically averaged a FantasyLabs’ +0.48 DraftKings Plus/Minus in San Diego, but that number has ballooned to +2.39 this season.
