Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Rays (-155) at Orioles (+143) — 7:05 PM EST
Rays out: Matt Duffy
Rays in: Mallex Smith
Matt Duffy is receiving a normal day of rest vs. the Orioles and righty Andrew Cashner on Friday. Joey Wendle will move up to the two-hole, Daniel Robertson will shift over to third base, and Mallex Smith will enter the lineup in Duffy’s absence. The Rays are presently implied to score 4.8 runs, and even though they possess the fourth-highest Team Value Rating on FanDuel, rain is in the forecast and could potentially lead to a postponed or shortened game. Cashner has one of the lowest SO/9 rates and K Predictions on the slate, which should benefit the Rays hitters. Only two Rays have negative wOBA and ISO differentials against righties, and six of the hitters are either lefties or switch-hitters. Cashner has allowed a higher fly ball rate against lefties compared to that of righties, but given the forecast, Rays hitters should be deployed sparingly in tournaments.
Royals (+255) at Yankees (-282) — 7:10 PM EST
Yankees out: Aaron Judge (fractured right wrist)
Aaron Judge is expected to miss at least the next three weeks after suffering a fracture in his right wrist, and Giancarlo Stanton will bat second against the Royals and right-hander Brad Keller on Friday. The Yankees are one of three teams presently implied to score at least 5.8 runs, but their total has decreased 0.3 runs since the line opened and rain appears to be in the forecast at Yankee Stadium. If the rain holds, the Yankees could present a solid stacking option as they lead all teams in Team Value Rating on DraftKings and FanDuel. Greg Bird and Miguel Andujar both have a recent hard hit rate of at least 50%, and Bird leads the team with a 0.265 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Their position near the back of the lineup and the concern of rain should deflate their overall ownership in tournaments.
Rangers (+237) at Astros (-261) — 8:10 PM EST
Rangers out: Rougned Odor
Rangers in: Willie Calhoun
Rougned Odor is resting against the Astros and left-hander Dallas Keuchel on Friday. Jurickson Profar will take over at second and bat second while Willie Calhoun gets a rare start against a lefty. The Rangers are one of four teams presently implied to score no more an 3.2 runs. Keuchel should fly under the radar on a slate with Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale, Zack Greinke, and Max Scherzer, but he’s significantly cheaper than the rest and has averaged a FantasyLabs’ +4.75 DraftKings Plus/Minus at Minute Maid Park. He has the third-lowest recent batted ball distance allowed (179 feet) and second-lowest recent hard hit rate allowed (17%) among all starters on the slate, and when he faced the Rangers earlier this month, Kuechel recorded 26.15 DraftKings points and struck out seven in 7.0 innings.
