Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Mets (+134) at Pirates (-145) — 7:05 PM EST
Pirates out: Starling Marte (left hand contusion)
Pirates in: Sean Rodriguez
Starling Marte exited Wednesday’s game due to a hand contusion, and he’ll miss Thursday’s game vs. the Mets and left-hander Steven Matz. Corey Dickerson remains sidelined with a left hamstring issue, but Francisco Cervelli is back in the lineup for the first time since landing on the concussion disabled list almost 10 days ago. Jordan Luplow will bat leadoff for the second time all season, and David Freese will handle cleanup duties for just the ninth time this year. The Pirates implied total has decreased 0.4 runs since the line opened, leaving them at 4.4 currently — a mediocre total in the nine-game main slate. They are also on the wrong side of reverse line movement, which could improve Matz’s chances as a contrarian option in tournaments. His recent batted ball distance allowed metric is one of the highest on the slate, but he’s limited hitters to a 31% recent hard-hit rate and he’s facing the lineup with the second-lowest combined wOBA (0.294).
Nationals (-131) at Marlins (+121) — 7:10 PM EST
Nationals out: Anthony Rendon (paternity), Daniel Murphy
Nationals in: Mark Reynolds, Wilmer Difo
Anthony Rendon has been placed on the paternity list and will miss Thursday’s game against the Marlins and right-hander Dan Straily. Daniel Murphy will also be absent after being scratched for an undisclosed reason, and Wilmer Difo will replace him at second base and hit eighth. Mark Reynolds will draw the start at third base while Ryan Zimmerman mans first base ahead of Matt Adams, even though Adams leads the team in recent batted-ball statistics. Despite Rendon and Murphy both out of the lineup, the Nationals are still currently implied to score a respectable 4.6 runs. Straily has allowed just two earned runs in his last two combined starts but still provides upside for Nationals bats with a 1.606 HR/9 rate over the previous year. However, left-handed power hitters Bryce Harper and Juan Soto could struggle with the deep ball at Marlins Park due to a slate-worst Park Factor for lefties.
