Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Mets (+157) at Yankees (-171) — 7:05 PM EST
Mets in: Yoenis Cespedes
Yoenis Cespedes was activated off the disabled list and will bat second as the designated hitter after missing the previous two months due to a strained right hip flexor. Jose Bautista will shift to third base and he’ll be replaced in the outfield by Matt den Dekker. The Mets are one of eight teams presently implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs, and none of the hitters in their lineup has more than three Pro Trends on DraftKings or FanDuel. Alternatively, everyone has a Bargain Rating of at least 86% on FanDuel, and Cespedes costs only $2,900. Alas, paying for Cespedes will be a nightly adventure as manager Mickey Calloway confirmed Cespedes could occasionally be a late scratch if the outfielder doesn’t feel well in the first few weeks of his return. Yankees starter Domingo German claims hitter-friendly marks of a 1.589 HR/9 rate and 44% recent hard hit rate, but he also carries substantial upside with his 11.236 SO/9 rate over the last year. German has been much more effective a Yankee Stadium this season.
Yankees in: Gary Sanchez
Gary Sanchez was activated off the disabled list and will bat sixth against the Mets and right-hander Noah Syndergaard on Friday. Sanchez missed the last month due to a strained right groin. The Yankees, despite facing Syndergaard, are presently implied to score 5.2 runs and have seen their total rise 0.6 runs since it opened. Syndergaard threw only 75 pitches in his most recent start after missing extended time with an injury, and it’s unclear if he’ll remain on a pitch count. Greg Bird may be a cheap first baseman worth considering as a contrarian play. Despite hitting seventh, he rates highly at his position in Statcast data and he’s relatively cheap. The Yankees currently possess the fifth-highest Team Value Rating on DraftKings, and they offer the five-man stack with the highest ISO metric.
Marlins (+152) at Rays (-165) — 7:10 PM EST
Rays out: CJ Cron
Rays in: Ji-Man Choi
CJ Cron will receive a day off on Friday in the first game out of the All-Star break and Ji-Man Choi will replace him at designated hitter. It will be Choi’s fourth start over the last six games, but he is hitless in his previous seven at-bats. Matt Duffy (back) has been scratched from the lineup and Daniel Robertson will replace him at third base, as Adeiny Hechavarria will enter the lineup at shortstop. The Rays are currently projected to score 4.3 runs against the Marlins and right-hander Dan Straily. Choi leads the team in average batted-ball distance over the last 15 days, costs just $2,200 on FanDuel, and ranks as the highest-rated Rangers hitter in the Bales Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Straily suffers from the second-worst HR/9 rate (1.838) out of all pitchers in Friday’s slate, and Jakob Bauers holds a team-high .263 ISO against right-handed pitchers this season.
Pirates (-108) at Reds (-100) — 7:10 PM EST
Reds out: Joey Votto
Reds in: Phillip Ervin
After recording three at-bats in the All-Star game on Tuesday, Joey Votto will rest on Friday in order to receive an extra day off to start the second half of the season. In his absence, Adam Duvall will draw the start at first base and Scooter Gennett will take over in the three-hole for just the second time this season. Phillip Ervin will enter the lineup in right field after being called up on Friday, as Scott Schebler (shoulder) was recently placed on the disabled list. Even without Votto’s bat in the lineup, the Reds are currently implied to score 4.2 runs as they face off against right-handed pitcher Jameson Taillon. However, the game calls for a 68% chance of precipitation, making it extremely risky to consider rostering Taillon in any format. If the game plays through, Gennett and Eugenio Suarez both qualify as tournament options with positive batted-ball statistics over the last 15 days as well as a favorable Park Factor rating.
