Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Astros (-142) at Rays (+131) — 1:10 PM EST
Astros in: Jake Marisnick, Yulieski Gurriel
Astros out: George Springer
George Springer will receive a day off, so the Astros will roll with Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Yulieski Gurriel at the top of the order for their matchup against the Rays. They’re presently implied to score just 3.8 runs, but have combined to post a slate-high .342 wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Overall, Bregman, Tyler White, Max Stassi, and Jake Marisnick form the main slate’s highest-rated four-man stack in combined ISO. Bregman in particular is set up well on FanDuel, where his $4,500 price tag comes with a 70 percent Bargain Rating and seven Pro Trends. Still, Blake Snell has been dominant in recent starts, allowing one or less runs in six of his last seven starts. Snell has struggled to limit big hits recently, as he ranks among the main slate’s bottom-three pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 15 days.
Rays in: Mallex Smith, Jesus Sucre
Rays out: Kevin Kiermaier, Wilson Ramos
Kevin Kiermaier and Wilson Ramos will be replaced in the lineup by Mallex Smith and Jesus Sucre, respectively. The Rays are currently implied to score a slate-low 3.2 runs vs. the Astros, who will hand the ball to righty Charlie Morton. It’s tough to find many negatives with Morton’s performance this season, as he’s posted a +9.3 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with a 71 percent Consistency Rating in 16 total starts. He carries a strong 7.8 K Prediction and is one of just three pitchers with a double-digit K/9 rate over the past 12 months. Morton is the highest-rated pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the Bales Model, although he carries a 97 percent Bargain Rating and has a +7.39 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Five of the Rays’ starters have posted negative ISO and wOBA splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year.
Brewers (-130) at Reds (+120) — 1:10 PM EST
Brewers in: Ryan Braun (tight lower back)
Brewers out: Christian Yelich (tight lower back)
The Brewers will welcome back Ryan Braun, who will bat third for a lineup presently implied to score 4.8 runs. Christian Yelich remains sidelined with a tight lower back. The Brewers are particularly in play on FanDuel, where they boast the fourth-highest Team Value Rating in Sunday’s main slate. Overall, each of Brad Miller, Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, and Manny Pina have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Thames ranks among the main slate’s top-two first basemen in both ISO and wOBA differential, and he carries a moderate 5-8 percent projected ownership rate on FanDuel. He’ll face off against Matt Harvey, who has pitched at least five innings in seven consecutive starts while allowing more than four runs just once. While current forecasts call for estimated wind gusts of seven miles per hour blowing in from right, the Brewers-Reds’ matchup carries the third-most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Sunday’s main slate.
Twins (+158) at Cubs (-172) — 2:20 PM EST
Twins in: Eddie Rosario (heat illness)
Twins out: Bobby Wilson (heat illness), Max Kepler (heat illness)
Several Twins were forced to leave Saturday’s game early due to head illness, so each of Bobby Wilson and Max Kepler will get the day off against the Cubs. Robbie Grossman, Eddie Rosario, and Eduardo Escobar will get things started for a Twins lineup presently implied to score a very respectable 5.4 runs at a windy Wrigley Field: current forecasts call for estimated wind gusts of 17 miles per hour blowing out to center field. The Twins are particularly enticing on DraftKings, where they boast the second-highest Team Value Rating in Sunday’s main slate. Overall, Grossman, Rosario, Brian Dozier, and Logan Morrison form the main slate’s second-highest rated four-man stack on DraftKings. Jon Lester will need to do a better job limiting big hits, as he ranks among the main slate’s bottom-five pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. The Twins-Cubs’ matchup currently has the second-most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Sunday’s main slate.
