Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
White Sox (+275) at Red Sox (-305) — 7:10 PM EST
Red Sox out: J.D. Martinez (tight lower back)
Red Sox in: Blake Swihart
J.D. Martinez left Thursday’s game after seven innings due to tightness in his lower back. He won’t suit up Friday, so the Red Sox will roll with Andrew Benintendi, Brock Holt, and Xander Bogaerts at the top of their order. The Red Sox are currently implied to score an impressive 5.2 runs against the White Sox. They’re attractive on DraftKings, where they boast the main slate’s third-highest Team Value Rating. Bogaerts, in particular, is set up well against righty Dylan Covey, as Bogaerts has posted a .312 wOBa and a .175 ISO vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. His $4,500 price tag on DraftKings comes with an 81 percent Bargain Rating, although Bogaerts carries a projected ownership rate of 9-12%. Covey will look to continue to force hitters to keep the ball on the ground, as his 70 percent ground-ball rate allowed over the past 15 days is the highest mark in Friday’s main slate. The White Sox-Red Sox matchup currently boasts the main slate’s second-most pitcher-friendly Weather Rating.
Astros (-190) at Rangers (+174) — 8:05 PM EST
Astros out: Carlos Correa (right side discomfort)
Astros in: Brian McCann (sore right knee), Marwin Gonzalez
Brian McCann has been activated from the disabled list and will bat eighth against the Rangers on Friday. Carlos Correa will sit for the second straight day due to discomfort in his right side. The Astros are currently one of four teams implied to score a slate-high 5.3 runs, and they boast the fifth-best Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Overall, their combined wOBA of .342 against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months is the second-highest mark in Friday’s main slate. Still, Doug Fister has done a good job limiting big hits recently, ranking among the main slate’s top-four pitchers in both average batted ball distance and exit velocity allowed over the past 15 days. Despite his recent performance, Fister carries virtually no strikeout upside considering his slate-low 3.5 K Prediction and matchup against an Astros lineup that has combined to strike out every .162 plate appearances over the past 12 months – the best mark in Friday’s main slate.
Angels (-117) at Twins (+108) — 8:10 PM EST
Angels in: Albert Pujols (sore right knee)
Shohei Ohtani was placed on the disabled list with a grade 2 sprain of the UCL, and he’s expected to miss at least three weeks. After missing the previous two games due to a sore right knee, Albert Pujols will bat fourth for an Angels team presently implied to score 4.7 runs — a mark that has risen 0.2 runs since the line opened. Pujols and Luis Valbuena are two of several players with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings, and Mike Trout ranks second among all hitters with nine Pro Trends on FanDuel. Additionally, Justin Upton’s 66% recent hard-hit rate is among the highest marks on the slate, and the Angels could provide a pivot from bats at Coors Field despite not being one of six teams presently implied to score at least 5.0 runs.
