Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Rays (+230) at Nationals (-253) — 7:05 PM EST
Rays out: Brad Miller
CJ Cron exited Sunday’s game after suffering a right forearm contusion, but he’ll man first base and bat second against Nationals and right-hander Max Scherzer. Brad Miller will have the night off in a National League ballpark. The Rays are the only team presently implied to score fewer than 3.0 runs in the main slate, and for the second time in the last three outings, Scherzer has a K Prediction of 11.0 — tied for the highest mark in our database. Scherzer has exceeded salary-based expectation in all but one start this season, and when he’s had a K Prediction of at least 10.0, Scherzer has averaged 29.75 DraftKings points per start combined with a 35.1% tournament ownership in 13 occasions. He’s a lock in cash games, but his salary could be unwieldy on DraftKings at $13,300.
Nationals in: Matt Adams (sore right foot)
Matt Adams missed one game due to a sore right foot, but he’ll bat cleanup for a Nationals lineup currently implied to score 4.4 runs against the Rays. They offer plenty of juice at the top of the order, as Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Adams have posted positive ISO and wOBA splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. They’ll oppose Nathan Eovaldi, who threw six hitless innings against the Athletics in his first start with the Rays last Wednesday. Nonetheless, Eovaldi carries a mediocre 4.4 K Prediction and has a tough matchup against a Nationals lineup that has combined to post a .338 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year. Both pitchers will have to deal with estimated wind gusts of nine miles per hour blowing out to right field.
Dodgers (-122) at Pirates (+113) — 7:05 PM EST
Dodgers out: Justin Turner
Dodgers in: Logan Forsythe
Justin Turner will receive his second consecutive day off, so the Dodgers will roll with Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, and Yasmani Grandal at the top of the order for their matchup against the Pirates. They’re currently implied to score just 3.9 runs, which is 0.6 runs below their opening total. Joe Musgrove has been electric in his two starts this season, allowing just one earned run and racking up 12 strikeouts in 14 total innings pitched. Overall, Musgrove ranks among the main slate’s top-five pitchers in average batted ball distance and exit velocity allowed over the past 15 days. He’s set up well against a Dodgers lineup that has combined to post a .301 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months – the third-lowest mark in Tuesday’s main slate. Exposure to Musgrove should be focused on FanDuel, where he’s the fifth-highest rated pitcher in the Bales Model and carries a +3.12 Projected Plus/Minus.
Pirates out: Starling Marte
Pirate in: Austin Meadows
Starling Marte will receive a routine rest day against the Dodgers and right-hander Ross Stripling on Tuesday. Francisco Cervelli will move up to the three-hole, and Austin Meadows will replace Marte in center field. The Pirates are one of nine teams presently implied to score no more than 3.6 runs in the main slate, and their total has decreased 0.5 runs since the line opened. Stripling is expensive for a pitcher with a K Prediction of 4.8, but he’s breached salary-based expectations in five straight outings on FanDuel while pitching at least six innings in the last three outings. Despite the subpar K Prediction, he’s recorded at least seven strikeouts in four straight matches, and he’ll warrant attention as a contrarian option.
Yankees (-135) at Blue Jays (+125) — 7:07 PM EST
Yankees out: Aaron Judge
Yankees in: Greg Bird
Aaron Judge will receiver a routine day off against the Blue Jays on Tuesday. Greg Bird will replace him in the three spot and start at first base. He’ll look to continue to hit the ball hard, as he’s posted an average batted ball distance of 225 feet with an average exit velocity of 91 miles per hour over the past 12 months. Still, only Brett Gardner has posted positive ISO or wOBA splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year among the Yankees’ top-four batters in the order. They’ll face off against Marco Estrada, who has allowed 15 earned runs in his last 21 innings pitched. Estrada needs to do a better job forcing hitters to keep the ball on the ground, as he’s posted slate-worst mark in average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 15 days. He carries a pedestrian 5.1 K Prediction and faces a Yankees lineup that has combined to post a slate-high .361 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Orioles (+115) at Mets (-125) — 7:10 PM EST
Mets in: Todd Frazier (strained left hamstring)
Todd Frazier was activated off the disabled list after missing time with a strained left hamstring, and like many players returning from a lengthy hiatus, his salary has cratered on FanDuel to $3,000. He’ll bat cleanup against the Orioles and right-hander Alex Cobb, and the Mets are presently implied to score 4.4 runs. Despite the mediocre team total, their 83 Team Value Rating on FanDuel is the fifth-highest mark in the main slate. Michael Conforto is the only hitter in the top-five of the lineup without a recent hard-hit rate of at least 50%, and despite leading all Mets with a 253-foot recent batted ball distance, Jay Bruce has been extremely unlucky, as signified by his 79 Batted Ball Luck factor — two of the highest marks on the slate.
Marlins (+167) at Cardinals (-182) — 8:15 PM EST
Cardinals in: Yadier Molina (groin)
Yadier Molina and Carlos Martinez return from the disabled list to face the Marlins on Tuesday. Molina will bat fifth, and there’s been no reported pitch count for Martinez. Molina costs $2,000 on FanDuel, and Martinez faces a lineup with the third-lowest combined wOBA against righties over the last year. The Cardinals are implied to score a decent 4.4 runs as they oppose a pitcher in Jose Urena who has generated groundballs in bunches. The Cardinals also have the eighth-highest groundball rate against righties this season, which could make Urena a sneaky option in tournaments. Molina profiles as a punt play due to his insanely low salary, and uncertainty regarding Martinez’s pitch limitations reduces him to a tournament option at $8,200 on FanDuel.
