Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Blue Jays (+103) at Tigers (-111) — 1:10 PM EST
Blue Jays out: Teoscar Hernandez (left foot contusion)
Blue Jays in: Randal Grichuk
Teoscar Hernandez exited Saturday’s game and was diagnosed with a left foot contusion. He’ll be replaced in the outfield Randal Grichuk, and Curtis Granderson will remain the leadoff hitter against righties. Although the Blue Jays are presently implied to score 4.5 runs, they claim the third-highest Team Value Rating on DraftKings (77) and highest TVR on FanDuel (86). Only one team in the FanDuel main slate is currently implied to score at least 5.0 runs, and since paying up for pitching doesn’t incur much of a penalty, the public may be less inclined to focus on a team with such a mediocre team total. The potential for rain at Comerica Park could lead to delays. The Blue Jays have the third highest-rated FanDuel stack, and they oppose a starter in Michael Fulmer who has allowed slate-highs of 256-foot batted ball distance allowed and 57% hard-hit rate over the last 15 days.
Tigers out: Victor Martinez
Tigers in: Ronny Rodriguez
Victor Martinez will receive a routine day off, so Leonys Martin, Nick Castellanos, and Miguel Cabrera will bat at the top of the order for a Tigers lineup currently implied to score a respectable 4.6 runs. They’re especially in play on FanDuel, where the Tigers currently boast the fourth-highest Team Value Rating in Sunday’s main slate. Overall, Castellanos, Cabrera, Jeimer Candelario, and Niko Goodrum form the main slate’s third-highest rated four-man stack on FanDuel in the Bales Model. Goodrum, in particular, is set up well against righty Aaron Sanchez, as he’s posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months and carries an 86 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel. Sanchez has allowed 11 runs in his last 14 innings pitched and hasn’t pitched more than five innings since April.
Cubs (-144) at Mets (+133) — 1:10 PM EST
Cubs out: Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo
Cubs in: Tommy La Stella, Ian Happ
Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo will rest against the Mets and left-hander Steven Matz on Sunday. Tommy La Stella and Ian Happ will replace them in the infield, Jason Heyward will remain in the two-hole for the fourth straight game, and Willson Contreras will bat cleanup. Despite the obvious improvement in situation for Matz, the Cubs’ current lineup has the fourth-highest team wOBA and Matz possesses a pedestrian 5.3 K Prediction. Although he failed to last beyond the fourth inning in two of his last three starts, he’s limited hitters to a 199-foot batted ball distance while posting a 53% ground ball rate. Matz has struggled at home this season, allowing eight homers and a 0.363 wOBA. Conversely, the Cubs have the fourth-highest team wOBA against lefties this season at 0.341, and that’s paired with the highest FantasyLabs’ Plus/Minus against lefties on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Nationals (+108) at Braves (-117) — 1:35 PM EST
Nationals out: Bryce Harper, Matt Adams (sore right foot)
Nationals in: Mark Reynolds, Brian Goodwin
Matt Adams left Saturday’s contest after injuring his right foot, and he won’t play against his former team, the Braves, on Sunday. Adams has been the primary cleanup hitter against righties due to the myriad of injuries, and now Mark Reynolds will bat fourth and man first base. Bryce Harper will rest during the series finale, Juan Soto will move up to the two-hole, and Brian Goodwin will replace Harper in right field. Light rain is in the forecast, but hitters at SunTrust Park have a slate-best 84 Weather Rating as the temperatures should creep into the 90s. Braves right-hander Anibal Sanchez possesses the fourth-highest WHIP (1.49) and third-highest HR/9 (1.8) in the main slate, two categories which should bode well for the Nationals hitters.
Brewers (-154) at White Sox (+142) — 2:10 PM EST
Brewers out: Ryan Braun
Brewers in: Domingo Santana
Domingo Santana will bat fifth and start in right field in place of Ryan Braun. The Brewers are presently implied to score an impressive 5.3 runs against the White Sox and boast the second-highest Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Overall, Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, Santana, and Ji-Man Choi form the main slate’s third-highest rated four-man stack in combined ISO. The Brewers will face off against Dylan Covey, who has done a great job limiting big hits in recent weeks. Overall, Covey ranks among the main slate’s top-three pitchers in average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 15 days. Still, Covey will have his hands full with a Brewers lineup that has combined to post a .352 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months – the second-highest mark in Sunday’s main slate. Both offenses could benefit from estimated wind gusts of 12 miles per hour blowing out to left center field.
Athletics (+100) at Royals (-108) — 2:10 PM EST
Athletics out: Matt Joyce (tight lower back)
Athletics in: Dustin Fowler
Matt Joyce is out of the lineup due to tightness in his lower back. Dustin Fowler, Marcus Semien, and Jed Lowrie will get things started for an Athletics lineup currently implied to score 4.5 runs. They boast the main slate’s third-highest Team Value Rating on FanDuel, where seven of their nine batters have a Bargain Rating of at least 70 percent. Matt Olson, in particular, is in play against righty Jake Junis, as Olson has posted a .418 wOBA and a .351 ISO vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Overall, he ranks among the main slate’s top-three first basemen in both wOBA and ISO differential vs. righties over the past calendar year. Junis has historically struggled to limit big hits, ranking among the main slate’s bottom-two pitchers in both average batted ball distance and exit velocity allowed over the past 12 months. He’s one of just five pitchers in the main slate that has allowed at least 1.5 home runs per nine innings pitched.
Pirates (+115) at Cardinals (-125) — 2:15 PM EST
Pirates out: Josh Harrison, Corey Dickerson
Pirates in: Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco
Josh Harrison and Corey Dickerson will each receive routine days off for the Pirates’ matchup against the Cardinals. Adam Frazier and Gregory Polanco will bat first and seventh, respectively, for a Pirates lineup currently implied to score just 3.7 runs. They’ll have their hands full with Michael Wacha, who has averaged a +5.8 Plus/Minus with an 80 percent Consistency Rating on FanDuel this season. Wacha is one of just three pitchers in Sunday’s main slate to allow less than one home run per nine innings pitched over the past 12 months, but he’s taking on a competent Pirates lineup that has combined to post a .327 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers – the fourth-highest mark in Sunday’s main slate. Exposure to Wacha should be focused on FanDuel, where his $8,700 price tag comes with an 85 percent Bargain Rating and a +2.45 Projected Plus/Minus. Both offenses could benefit from estimated wind gusts of 15 miles per hour blowing out to right.
