Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Red Sox (+115) at Yankees (-125) — 7:05 PM EST
Red Sox in: Steve Pearce
Red Sox out: Mitch Moreland
After being traded to the Red Sox on Thursday, Steve Pearce will make his team debut on Friday at first base and hit cleanup. Left-handed hitter Mitch Moreland will slide to the bench despite recording a .353 wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season. The Red Sox are currently implied to score 4.6 runs against the Yankees and starter CC Sabathia, and Pearce has nine hits in 33 career at-bats against Sabathia with two home runs and two doubles. Pearce also benefits from exceptional recent Statcast data and leads the lineup in average batted-ball distance and exit velocity over the last 15 days. His salary on FanDuel ($2,500) presents an 82% Bargain Rating, allowing for potential team stacks including high-priced studs in Mookie Betts and JD Martinez. However, exposure should be limited to tournaments as Sabathia has held his opponents to three or fewer runs in 12 of his 14 starts this season.
Brewers (+101) at Reds (-109) — 7:10 PM EST
Brewers out: Christian Yelich (tight lower back)
Brewers in: Keon Broxton
Christian Yelich exited Thursday’s game due to a tight lower back, and he’ll sit against the Reds and right-hander Sal Romano on Friday. Keon Broxton will take over in the outfield and Brad Miller will slide up to the leadoff spot for one of six teams presently implied to score at least 5.0 runs in the main slate. The Brewers also have the fifth-highest Team Value Rating (84) on FanDuel, and four of their hitters claim eight FanDuel Pro Trends. Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar are the highest-rated Brewers in the Bales Model, and both sport nearly identical and elite Statcast data with the exception of Thames’ 62% recent flyball rate. Thames may have met his foil in Romano, who has limited hitters to an 18% recent fly ball rate, but Romano has one of the highest WHIPs on the slate and he’s allowed at least five runs in five of his last eight outings. Alas, the top three hitters in the Brewers lineup cannot be stacked because Thames, Aguilar, and Miller are all listed as first basemen on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Astros (-182) at Rays (+167) — 7:10 PM EST
Astros out: George Springer
Astros in: Jake Marisnick
George Springer will sit for the fifth time all season, and Alex Bregman will bat leadoff against the Rays and right-hander Wilmer Font, who has yet to throw more than 80 pitches in a start this season. Jake Marisnick will man center field and bat ninth in Springer’s absence. The Astros are also missing Carlos Correa, who landed on the disabled list, and Yulieski Gurriel, who’s on paternity leave. The Astros are presently implied to score 4.1 runs despite Font’s negative indicators: 4.9 K Prediction, 3.198 HR/9 rate, and 1.777 WHIP. At $5,900 on DraftKings, he’s objectively overpriced. However, he’s continued to pitch deeper into games, and he’s facing a lineup with a 0.305 team wOBA. Font is a pure tournament salary-saver as an SP2, and Bregman’s Statcast data compares favorably to third basemen. He’s pricey on DraftKings ($5,300) and FanDuel ($4,600), and that could impair his overall ownership.
Braves (+130) at Cardinals (-141) — 8:15 PM EST
Braves in: Ronald Acuna (knee, back)
Ronald Acuna will return to the lineup on Friday after being on the disabled list for the previous month due to a left knee contusion and lower back contusion. Despite hitting second for the bulk of the season, Acuna will slide down to the six-hole as manager Brian Snitker prefers Ender Inciarte and Ozzie Albies atop the lineup. Even with Acuna back, the Braves are currently implied to score just 3.9 runs as they travel to a pitcher-friendly park in Busch Stadium. The top five hitters in the lineup have all suffered from a negative average batted-ball distance differential in the last 15 days. Opposing pitcher Miles Mikolas has the second-lowest HR/9 rate out of all starting pitchers in Friday’s main slate, but his appeal as a tournament option is limited thanks to a high salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as a lousy 4.3 implied strikeout total.
