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MLB Lineup Analysis 6/27: Judge Sentenced to Day of Rest

Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.

Yankees (-122) at Phillies (+113) — 7:05 PM EST

Yankees out: Aaron Judge

Yankees in: Aaron Hicks

Aaron Judge will rest against the Phillies and right-hander Zach Eflin in a National League park. Aaron Hicks will move into the outfield and bat third while Kyle Higashioka makes his MLB debut behind the plate. Hicks is the only Yankee in the lineup with more than two FanDuel Pro Trends, and he leads all hitters in the lineup with a 234-foot recent batted ball distance, 46% recent fly ball rate, and 48% recent hard hit rate. Rain is in the forecast, which could lead to delays and increases risk when selecting hitters from either side of the game. The Yankees are presently implied to score a mediocre 4.3 runs, and combined with the weather concerns, it’s likely their hitters will possess minimal ownership in tournaments despite Eflin’s slate-high 233-foot recent batted ball distance allowed.

Diamondbacks (-152) at Marlins (+140) — 7:10 PM EST

Marlins out: J.T. Realmuto (sore wrist)

Marlins in: Derek Dietrich

J.T. Realmuto was scratched from the lineup and will sit for the third straight game due to a sore wrist. Derek Dietrich will man first base with Justin Bour sitting against a lefty, Lewis Brinson will bat cleanup, and Bryan Holaday will catch against the Diamondbacks and left-hander Robbie Ray, who will make his first start since the end of April after suffering a strained right oblique. The Marlins are presently implied to score a slate-low 3.3 runs, but it’s unclear how long of a leash Ray will command. Nonetheless, the Marlins have the second-lowest team wOBA (0.286) and highest soft contact rate (22.5%) against lefties this season. Ray is the only pitcher with a K Prediction above 7.0, leading all starters in the main slate at 9.6, and his salary isn’t overbearing on either site — $10,000 on DraftKings and $9,000 on FanDuel.

Pirates (+105) at Mets (-114) — 7:10 PM EST

Mets in: Brandon Nimmo (sore right pinky)

Brandon Nimmo will play in Wednesday’s contest vs. the Pirates after missing the previous two games with a sore right pinky finger, and he’ll return to the leadoff spot in his first game back. Jose Bautista will hit in the two-hole for the second time in the last three games after hitting leadoff on Tuesday, while Todd Frazier has been bumped down to sixth in the order. The Mets have lost seven of their last eight games and are currently implied to score just 3.9 runs. Bautista carries the highest team rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel with a favorable spot in the lineup and a more advantageous Park Factor as a right-handed hitter. Nimmo still profiles as an intriguing tournament option thanks to a league-high .446 wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season, and a 40% chance of precipitation coupled with the lackluster team total could drive his ownership down.

Padres (+108) at Rangers (-117) — 8:05 PM EST

Rangers out: Nomar Mazara

Rangers in: Ryan Rua

Nomar Mazara will receive a rest day on Wednesday against left-handed pitcher Clayton Richard, and Ryan Rua will enter the lineup in the outfield hitting ninth. Isiah Kiner-Falefa will make his third start at catcher this season and Delino DeShields will hit second after batting ninth in his last seven starts. The Rangers are tied with the Athletics for the second-highest implied team total (5.0) in Wednesday’s main slate. DeShields and Elvis Andrus have struggled with batted-ball distance over the last 15 days, while Jurickson Profar has led the team in batted-ball distance, exit velocity, and hard hit percentage. Richard has allowed opposing hitters to record the third-highest hard hit percentage (41%) in the previous 15 days, but he’s limited the long ball and has held teams to three or fewer runs in each of his last six starts.

Pictured above: Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks
Photo credit: Wendell Cruz — USA TODAY Sports

Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.

Yankees (-122) at Phillies (+113) — 7:05 PM EST

Yankees out: Aaron Judge

Yankees in: Aaron Hicks

Aaron Judge will rest against the Phillies and right-hander Zach Eflin in a National League park. Aaron Hicks will move into the outfield and bat third while Kyle Higashioka makes his MLB debut behind the plate. Hicks is the only Yankee in the lineup with more than two FanDuel Pro Trends, and he leads all hitters in the lineup with a 234-foot recent batted ball distance, 46% recent fly ball rate, and 48% recent hard hit rate. Rain is in the forecast, which could lead to delays and increases risk when selecting hitters from either side of the game. The Yankees are presently implied to score a mediocre 4.3 runs, and combined with the weather concerns, it’s likely their hitters will possess minimal ownership in tournaments despite Eflin’s slate-high 233-foot recent batted ball distance allowed.

Diamondbacks (-152) at Marlins (+140) — 7:10 PM EST

Marlins out: J.T. Realmuto (sore wrist)

Marlins in: Derek Dietrich

J.T. Realmuto was scratched from the lineup and will sit for the third straight game due to a sore wrist. Derek Dietrich will man first base with Justin Bour sitting against a lefty, Lewis Brinson will bat cleanup, and Bryan Holaday will catch against the Diamondbacks and left-hander Robbie Ray, who will make his first start since the end of April after suffering a strained right oblique. The Marlins are presently implied to score a slate-low 3.3 runs, but it’s unclear how long of a leash Ray will command. Nonetheless, the Marlins have the second-lowest team wOBA (0.286) and highest soft contact rate (22.5%) against lefties this season. Ray is the only pitcher with a K Prediction above 7.0, leading all starters in the main slate at 9.6, and his salary isn’t overbearing on either site — $10,000 on DraftKings and $9,000 on FanDuel.

Pirates (+105) at Mets (-114) — 7:10 PM EST

Mets in: Brandon Nimmo (sore right pinky)

Brandon Nimmo will play in Wednesday’s contest vs. the Pirates after missing the previous two games with a sore right pinky finger, and he’ll return to the leadoff spot in his first game back. Jose Bautista will hit in the two-hole for the second time in the last three games after hitting leadoff on Tuesday, while Todd Frazier has been bumped down to sixth in the order. The Mets have lost seven of their last eight games and are currently implied to score just 3.9 runs. Bautista carries the highest team rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel with a favorable spot in the lineup and a more advantageous Park Factor as a right-handed hitter. Nimmo still profiles as an intriguing tournament option thanks to a league-high .446 wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season, and a 40% chance of precipitation coupled with the lackluster team total could drive his ownership down.

Padres (+108) at Rangers (-117) — 8:05 PM EST

Rangers out: Nomar Mazara

Rangers in: Ryan Rua

Nomar Mazara will receive a rest day on Wednesday against left-handed pitcher Clayton Richard, and Ryan Rua will enter the lineup in the outfield hitting ninth. Isiah Kiner-Falefa will make his third start at catcher this season and Delino DeShields will hit second after batting ninth in his last seven starts. The Rangers are tied with the Athletics for the second-highest implied team total (5.0) in Wednesday’s main slate. DeShields and Elvis Andrus have struggled with batted-ball distance over the last 15 days, while Jurickson Profar has led the team in batted-ball distance, exit velocity, and hard hit percentage. Richard has allowed opposing hitters to record the third-highest hard hit percentage (41%) in the previous 15 days, but he’s limited the long ball and has held teams to three or fewer runs in each of his last six starts.

Pictured above: Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks
Photo credit: Wendell Cruz — USA TODAY Sports