Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Mariners (-123) at Orioles (+114) — 7:05 PM EST
Mariners in: Jean Segura (right forearm infection, illness)
Jean Segura missed four consecutive games with staph infection on his right forearm, but he’ll bat second for a Mariners lineup currently implied to score five runs. The Mariners are especially in play on FanDuel, where they boast the fourth-highest Team Value Rating in Monday’s main slate. Overall, Dee Gordon, Segura, and Nelson Cruz form the main slate’s fourth-highest rated three-man stack in the Bales Model in projected FanDuel points. Each batter carries a Bargain Rating of at least 93 percent on FanDuel. They’re set up well against righty Andrew Cashner, who has averaged 6.2 K/9 and a 1.3 WHIP over the past 12 months. Cashner will look to continue to limit big hits, as he ranks among the main slate’s top-three pitchers in average batted ball distance and exit velocity allowed over the past 15 days. Both pitchers could benefit from estimated wind gusts of six miles per hour blowing in from center field, as well as the main slate’s third-most pitcher-friendly Weather Rating. Still, Cashner will have his hands full with an Orioles lineup that has combined to post a solid .320 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year.
Orioles in: Mark Trumbo (sore knee), Tim Beckham (strained left groin)
Mark Trumbo will play through his sore knee and bat fourth for an Orioles lineup presently implied to score a solid 4.6 runs. Tim Beckham has been activated from the disabled list and will bat eighth. They’re dangerous at the top of the order, as five of the team’s top-six batters have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Colby Rasmus in particular is set up well on FanDuel, where his $2,300 salary comes with an 82 percent Bargain Rating and a +0.95 Projected Plus/Minus. Overall, Rasmus ranks among the main slate’s top-10 outfielders in both wOBA and ISO differential vs. righties over the past calendar year. Felix Hernandez hasn’t exactly been lights out recently, allowing at least four runs in six of his last 10 starts. Both pitchers could benefit from estimated wind gusts of six miles per hour blowing in from center field, as well as the main slate’s third-most pitcher-friendly Weather Rating.
Diamondbacks (-123) at Marlins (+114) — 7:10 PM EST
Marlins in: Bryan Holaday
Marlins out: JT Realmuto (hand, wrist)
JT Realmuto was hit in the hand/wrist during Sunday’s game and is considered day to day, so the Marlins will roll with Derek Dietrich, Brian Anderson, and Justin Bour at the top of the order for their matchup against the Diamondbacks. They’re presently implied to score just 4.1 runs against the Diamondbacks and Shelby Miller, who has recovered from Tommy John surgery and will make his season debut. Miller has a great matchup against a Marlins lineup that has combined to post a .279 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year – the second-worst mark in Monday’s main slate. He carries a mediocre 5.4 K Prediction against a Marlins lineup that has combined to strike out every .261 at bats over the past 12 months. Both pitchers could benefit from estimated wind gusts of eight miles per hour blowing in from right field. Only three of the Marlins’ starters have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. righties over the past 12 months.
Pirates (-111) at Mets (+103) — 7:10 PM EST
Mets in: Dominic Smith, Luis Guillorme
Mets out: Brandon Nimmo (sore right pinky finger), Todd Frazier
Brandon Nimmo is dealing with a sore right pinky finger, but he won’t require a stint on the disabled list and is considered day to day. Todd Frazier will receive a routine day off, so Asdrubal Cabrera and Dominic Smith will bat third and fourth, respectively, for a Mets lineup presently implied to score just 3.7 runs. They’ve combined to post a mediocre .285 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months – the third-worst mark in Monday’s main slate. This is all great news for Jameson Taillon, who has struck out at least six batters in five of his last six starts. Taillon carries a solid 6.4 K Prediction and is a top-five rated pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the Bales Model. He’ll look to continue to force hitters to keep the ball on the ground, as he’s one of just five pitchers to allow a ground-ball rate above 50 percent over the past 15 days.
