Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Diamondbacks (+108) at Pirates (-117) — 1:35 PM EST
Diamondbacks out: Paul Goldschmidt, Jon Jay
Diamondbacks in: Jarrod Dyson, Daniel Descalso
Paul Goldschmidt is resting for the first time since May 29th, and he’ll be replaced at first base by Daniel Descalso and in the two-hole by Ketel Marte. Jon Jay is also receiving a respite, and in his absence, Jarrod Dyson will man centerfield and bat leadoff against the Pirates and right-hander Trevor Williams on Sunday. Rain may be in the forecast, but a postponement doesn’t appear likely. Dyson costs $2,300 on FanDuel, but he also claims the worst recent Statcast data in the lineup and should be considered as a punt-option only. The Diamondbacks are presently implied to score a mediocre 4.3 runs, and their hitters are likely to receive little-to-no ownership sans Goldschmidt. However, Descalso, Chris Owings, J.R. Murphy, and David Peralta, and Nick Ahmed all have a recent hard-hit rate of at least 50%, and Williams has failed to pitch at least 5.0 innings in three of his last five outings.
Cubs (-138) at Reds (+127) — 1:10 PM EST
Cubs out: Kris Bryant (sore left shoulder)
Kris Bryant is sitting for the second straight game, and he’s reportedly dealing with soreness in his left shoulder. Albert Almora will bat leadoff for a Cubs team presently implied to score 5.3 runs — the third-highest mark in the main slate. The Cubs possess the second-highest Team Value Rating (85) on FanDuel, and Addison Russell is the only hitter in the lineup without at least five Pro Trends on DraftKings. Almora is too cheap to disregard on FanDuel ($2,100), but the high implied team total may be a trap as Reds’ righty Sal Romano has favorable Statcast data over the past 15 days. Six hitters in the Cubs’ order have a recent groundball rate of at least 40%, and Romano has combined the ninth-highest recent groundball rate (48%) with the fifth-lowest recent batted ball distance allowed (194 feet). Romano hasn’t been consistent during his career, but at $4,500 on DraftKings, he’s in play as a punt option at SP2.
Rangers (+167) at Twins (-182) — 2:10 PM EST
Rangers out: Elvis Andrus
Rangers in: Jurickson Profar
Elvis Andrus will sit for the first time since returning from the disabled list and Jurickson Profar will move to shortstop and bat second against the Twins and right-hander Jose Berrios on Sunday. The Rangers are one of five teams presently implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs in the main slate, and they are facing a pitcher who has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven straight starts on DraftKings. However, Berrios’ salary has increased to $11,800 on DraftKings for the second time all season, and despite recording more than six strikeouts in six of the last seven outings, his 6.1 K Prediction is only the ninth-highest mark among starters on the main slate. Pitchers with a similar salary and K Prediction have historically produced a FantasyLabs’ +0.10 DraftKings Plus/Minus, and in Berrios’ case, he’s supplied a -4.09 DraftKings Plus/Minus in the seven instances of matching the trend.
Cardinals (+119) at Brewers (-129) — 2:10 PM EST
Cardinals out: Tommy Pham
Cardinals in: Harrison Bader
Tommy Pham was scratched Sunday after feeling lightheaded in the batting cage as he’s been dealing with an illness. He was replaced in the lineup by Harrison Bader, with Greg Garcia moving up in the order to hit second. Opposing pitcher Jhoulys Chacin has allowed a stingy .249 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season as opposed to a .326 wOBA against lefties, leaving Matt Carpenter as a strong one-off option in the lefty-friendly confines of Miller Park. Carpenter is particularly valuable on FanDuel, where he’s priced at $3700 with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and has the highest Rating among all Cardinals hitters in the Bales Model. He’s exceeded his salary-based expectation on FD by an average of 5.5 points over the last 10 games.
Brewers out: Lorenzo Cain
Brewers in: Hernan Perez
Lorenzo Cain will get a rare day off on Sunday and will be replaced in the lineup by Hernan Perez, with Ryan Braun (thumb) returning to action to hit third following a five-game absence. The Brewers are implied at a healthy 4.6 runs and could prove to be a sneaky under-the-radar stack going up against opposing pitcher Luke Weaver, who’s seen his strikeout rate plummet this season while allowing significantly more hard contact, particularly to lefties. Eric Thames has posted massive wOBA (+0.183) and ISO (+0.262) differentials against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months and stands out on FanDuel at $3900, where he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating. Thames has been in good form as of late too with an average batted ball distance of 253 feet over the past 15 days, up 16 feet from his previous 12-month average.
