Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Phillies (+150) at Nationals (-163) — 7:05 PM EST
Nationals out: Adam Eaton
Nationals in: Michael Taylor
Nationals manager Dave Lopez decided to rest Adam Eaton for the second straight game, allowing Michael Taylor to replace Eaton in the outfield and Bryce Harper to remain the leadoff hitter for a Nationals team presently implied to score 4.8 runs against the Phillies and right-hander Zach Eflin on Friday. Anthony Rendon leads the Nationals in Pro Trends on DraftKings and FanDuel, and only one third basemen has a higher recent batted ball distance compared to Rendon, who homered on Thursday and has reached base in seven straight games. Although Elfin has generated a 50% groundball rate in his last two outings, hitters have responded with a 45% recent hard hit rate, the seventh-highest mark over the last two weeks among Friday’s starters. Rain is presently in the forecast, which should help drive down ownership of Nationals hitters in tournaments and potentially create an edge.
Diamondbacks (-118) at Pirates (+109) — 7:05 PM EST
Diamondbacks out: Daniel Descalso
Diamondbacks in: Nick Ahmed
Daniel Descalso will rest for Friday’s game against the Pirates and Nick Ahmed will enter the lineup at shortstop with Ketel Marte at second base. The Diamondbacks are currently implied to score just 3.9 runs as they suffer from a poor Park Factor at PNC Park. After failing to reach his salary-based expectation in seven straight starts, opposing pitcher Ivan Nova has averaged 39.0 Fanduel points over his last two outings. However, he holds the fifth-worst HR/9 rate out of all starters in Friday’s main slate. Paul Goldschmidt has hit 12 of his team-high 16 home runs on the road this season, while left-handed batters David Peralta and Jake Lamb rank top two in wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season. Peralta and Lamb also benefit from a more favorable Park Factor as lefties, and both possess a Bargain Rating of at least 82% on FanDuel.
Orioles (+158) at Braves (-172) — 7:35 PM EST
Ender Inciarte returns to the leadoff spot for the first time since June 3rd, and Dansby Swanson has been moved down to seventh in the order against the Orioles and right-hander Alex Cobb on Friday. In the previous 33 starts as the leadoff hitter, Inciarte averaged a FantasyLabs’ -0.34 FanDuel Plus/Minus. His recent Statcast data — 185-foot recent batted ball distance and 55% recent ground ball rate — detracts from Inciarte’s appeal as a potential punt option at $3,000 on FanDuel, but the Braves are presently implied to score 4.9 runs — the fifth-highest mark in the main slate. Leadoff hitters with comparable Statcast numbers at a similar salary have averaged a +1.29 FanDuel Plus/Minus and a 45.8% Consistency Rating on teams implied to score an almost identical total. In the 51 times Inciarte matched the trend dating back to 2015, he has averaged a +2.26 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Additionally, Cobb allowed 18 hits, four homers, and 14 runs combined in his last two outings.
