Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Orioles (+170) at Nationals (-185) — 7:05 PM EST
Orioles in: Jace Peterson
Orioles out: Corbin Joseph
Corbin Joseph will receive a routine day off, so the Orioles will roll with Jace Peterson, Adam Jones, and Manny Machado at the top of the order for their matchup against the Nationals. They’re presently implied to score just 3.8 runs, and their lineup has combined to post a slate-low .281 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. This is great news for righty Jefry Rodriguez, who allowed zero runs in 4.2 innings pitched in his only appearance this season. Exposure to Rodriguez should be focused on FanDuel, where his $5,500 price tag comes with a 70 percent Bargain Rating and a +5.2 Projected Plus/Minus. Still, he carries a mediocre 4.9 K Prediction and has averaged just 6.4 K/9 over the past calendar year. The Orioles-Nationals’ matchup currently has the fourth-most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Tuesday’s main slate.
Nationals out: Matt Adams (fractured left index finger)
Matt Adams has been placed on the 10-day disabled list due to a fractured left index finger. Anthony Rendon and Bryce Harper will bat third and fourth, respectively, for a Nationals lineup presently implied to score 5.3 runs. They’re especially in play on DraftKings, where their Team Value Rating is tied for the fourth-highest mark in Tuesday’s main slate. Harper has historically hit well from the No. 4 spot, averaging 11.2 DraftKings points per game with a +2.0 Plus/Minus since 2014. He’s set up well against righty David Hess, as Harper ranks among the main slate’s top-seven outfielders in both wOBA and ISO vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year. Hess is one of just three pitchers in Tuesday’s main slate that have allowed over two home runs per nine innings pitched over the past 12 months, and he ranks among the bottom-five pitchers in both average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 15 days.
Cardinals (+106) at Phillies (-115) — 7:05 PM EST
Phillies in: Aaron Altherr
Phillies out: Nick Williams (face)
Nick Williams left Monday’s game with a face injury and will sit out Tuesday’s matchup against the Cardinals. The Phillies will roll with Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, and Aaron Altherr from left to right field, and they’ll bat second, third and fifth, respectively, for a lineup presently implied to score a respectable 4.4 runs. The Phillies are set up well against righty Luke Weaver, as every batter has posted positive ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Hoskins is especially in play on FanDuel, where his $4,100 salary comes with a low 2-4 percent projected ownership rate. Overall, Hoskins is the fifth-highest rated outfielder in the Bales Model on FanDuel. Still, both offenses will have to deal with estimated wind gusts of seven miles per hour blowing in from center field. Weaver has allowed a slate-low 18 percent fly-ball rate and zero home runs over the past 15 days, although he’s still given up eight earned runs over that span.
Brewers (+104) at Pirates (-112) — 7:05 PM EST
Brewers in: Hernan Perez, Jesus Aguilar
Brewers out: Travis Shaw (sore right wrist), Ryan Braun
Travis Shaw will again sit out due to a sore right wrist, while Ryan Braun will receive a routine day off. The Brewers will roll with Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, and Jesus Aguilar at the top of the order for their matchup against the Pirates. Each of Yelich and Eric Thames have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. righties over the past 12 months. Thames carries a 93 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel and ranks among the main slate’s top-10 first basemen in both wOBA and ISO vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year. Jameson Taillon will look to continue to limit big hits, as he ranks among the main slate’s top-five pitchers in average batted ball distance and exit velocity allowed over the past 12 months. Taillon carries a strong 8.2 K Prediction and is set up well against a Brewers lineup that has combined to strike out every .298 at bats over the past 12 months – the second-worst mark in Tuesday’s main slate.
