Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Marlins (+167) at Orioles (-182) — 1:05 PM EST
Orioles in: Corban Joseph, Jace Peterson, Austin Wynns
Orioles out: Joey Rickard, Danny Valencia, Chance Sisco
Chanse Sisco has been scratched Sunday. Austin Wynns will now catch and bat ninth. Joey Rickard and Danny Valencia will each receive routine days off. Corban Joseph, Adam Jones, and Manny Machado will get things started for an Orioles lineup presently implied to score a very respectable five runs. They’re especially in play on FanDuel, where the Orioles currently boast a slate-high Team Value Rating. Overall, Joseph, Jones, Trey Mancini, and Craig Gentry form the main slate’s top-rated four-man stack in Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel in the Bales Model. The Orioles are set up well against Trevor Richards, who ranks among the main slate’s bottom-two pitchers in both exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days.
Nationals (-126) at Blue Jays (+116) — 1:07 PM EST
Nationals in: Brian Goodwin, Wilmer Difo
Nationals out: Adam Eaton, Matt Adams (left index finger)
Adam Eaton will receive a routine day off, while Matt Adams remains sidelined with an injury to his left index finger. Trea Turner will lead off for a Nationals lineup presently implied to score 4.8 runs against the Blue Jays. The top of the Nationals order will be a handful for righty Sam Gaviglio, as each of Turner, Bryce Harper, and Daniel Murphy have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Overall, the Nationals have combined to post a .341 wOBA vs. righties over the past calendar year – the fourth-highest mark in Sunday’s main slate. Still, Gaviglio has historically done a great job limiting big hits, ranking among the main slate’s top-three pitchers in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed over the past calendar year. Both offenses could benefit from estimated wind gusts of 10 miles per hour blowing out to center field with the Rogers Centre roof open.
Blue Jays in: Randal Grichuk
Blue Jays out: Justin Smoak
Justin Smoak will receive a routine day off, so the Blue Jays will roll with Curtis Granderson, Teoscar Hernandez, and Yangervis Solarte at the top of the order for their matchup against the Nationals. Each has posted positive wOBA splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Granderson in particular is set up well on FanDuel, where his $3,900 price tag comes with an 82 percent Bargain Rating and a +1.3 Projected Plus/Minus – the fifth-highest mark among all outfielders in Sunday’s main slate. Their implied total of 4.3 runs is down 0.4 runs since opening, although both offenses could benefit from estimated wind gusts of 10 miles per hour blowing out to center field with the Rogers Centre roof open. The Blue Jays will face off against Tanner Roark, who has allowed four home runs in his last 12.1 innings pitched. Overall, Roark ranks among the main slate’s bottom-four pitchers in both average batted ball distance and exit velocity allowed over the past 15 days.
Reds (+129) at Pirates (-140) — 1:35 PM EST
Reds in: Curt Casali
Reds out: Tucker Barnhart
Tucker Barnhart will receive a routine day off, so Curt Casili will catch and bat seventh for a Reds lineup currently implied to score just 3.9 runs. Barnhart’s absence is great news for Joe Musgrove, who has allowed three or fewer runs in all four of his starts this season. Musgrove has continued to offer strikeout upside and currently boasts a solid 6.8 K Prediction against a Reds lineup that has combined to strike out every .249 at bats over the past 12 months. Exposure to Musgrove should be focused on FanDuel, where his $7,600 salary comes with an 82 percent Bargain Rating and a +1.8 Projected Plus/Minus. Overall, Musgrove has averaged a +10.4 Plus/Minus on FanDuel this season, although his salary has increased by $2,100 over the past month
Padres (+116) at Braves (-126) — 1:35 PM EST
Braves in: Johan Camargo
Braves out: Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies will get a day off, so the Braves will roll with Dansby Swanson and Johan Camargo at shortstop and second base, respectively. Swanson and Camargo will bat first and seventh for a Braves lineup presently implied to score a respectable 4.5 runs. The middle of the Braves lineup offers plenty of upside, as each of Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, and Kurt Suzuki have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. southpaws over the past 12 months. Suzuki in particular is set up well against lefty Matthew Strahm, as he ranks among the main slate’s top-six catchers in both wOBA and ISO differential over the past calendar year. Suzuki boasts a 70 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel with a mediocre projected ownership rate of 5-8 percent. Strahm is one of seven pitchers in Sunday’s main slate that have allowed at least 1.5 home runs per nine innings pitched over the past 12 months.
Rays (+200) at Yankees (-219) — 2:05 PM EST
Yankees in: Aaron Hicks
Yankees out: Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks will lead off in place of Brett Gardner, who will receive a routine day off Sunday. The Yankees are presently implied to score 5.5 runs against the Rays, who are lead by righty ‘starter’ Wilmer Font. The Rays haven’t asked Font to pitch more than 3.1 innings in any of his appearances this season. He’ll have his hands full with a Yankees lineup that has combined to post a slate-high .357 wOBA vs. righties over the past 12 months. Overall, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Giancarlo Stanton, and Greg Bird form the main slate’s highest-rated four-man stack in combined ISO over the past calendar year. Judge will look to stay hot, as he’s racked up multiple hits in three consecutive games. Still, he boasts a position-high projected ownership rate of 13-16 percent on both DraftKings and Fanduel.
Tigers (-102) at White Sox (-106) — 2:10 PM EST
White Sox in: Daniel Palka
White Sox out: Jose Abreu
Jose Abreu will receive a rest day, so the White Sox will roll with Kevan Smith, Matt Davidson, and Daniel Palka in the 3-5 spots of the batting order. They’re currently implied to score a solid 4.8 runs and boast the second-highest Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Overall, each White Sox batter carries at least four DraftKings Pro Trends. Still, they’ll have their hands full with southpaw Blaine Hardy, who ranks among the main slate’s top-three pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. Hardy has pitched at least six innings in each of his past four starts, and he boasts a respectable +2.4 Plus/Minus on FanDuel this season. Hardy’s $6,100 price tag on FanDuel comes with a 75 percent Bargain Rating and a +6.1 Projected Plus/Minus – the second-highest mark among pitchers in Sunday’s main slate.
