Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Orioles (+116) at Blue Jays (-126) — 1:07 PM EST
Blue Jays out: Justin Smoak
Justin Smoak will rest for the second time in the last month, Kendrys Morales will replace Smoak at first base, and Curtis Granderson will bat leadoff and grab designated hitter duties from Morales. Every hitter in the Blue Jays lineup has at least five DraftKings Pro Trends, but only three have a positive recent batted ball distance differential. Conversely, Orioles righty Alex Cobb has a slate-low 3.6 K Prediction, and he’s failed to accrue more than five strikeouts in all but one start this season. The Blue Jays are presently implied to score 4.8 runs, and even though their total has decreased 0.3 runs since opening, they have the second-highest Team Value Rating (87) on FanDuel.
Indians (-217) at Tigers (+198) — 1:10 PM EST
Indians out: Jason Kipnis (stiff neck), Edwin Encarnacion (right ankle)
Indians in: Erik Gonzalez, Melky Cabrera
Jason Kipnis and Edwin Encarnacion will sit out with neck and ankle injuries, respectively, so the Indians will align Greg Allen, Michael Brantley, and Jose Ramirez at the top of the order for their matchup against the Tigers. Allen and Brantley, in particular, are set up well against righty Artie Lewicki, as both batters have posted positive ISO and wOBA splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Lewicki is among the main slate’s bottom-three rated pitchers on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the Bales Model. Lewicki ranks among the main slate’s bottom-two pitchers in average batted ball distance and exit velocity allowed over the past calendar year. Still, both pitchers could benefit from estimated wind gusts of 11 miles per hour blowing in from left field.
Angels (+106) at Twins (-115) — 2:10 PM EST
Twins out: Brian Dozier
Twins in: Jake Cave
Brian Dozier will receive a day off, and Robbie Grossman will bat leadoff for a Twins lineup presently implied to score an impressive 4.7 runs. They’re particularly in play on FanDuel, where they currently boast the main slate’s fourth-highest Team Value Rating. Overall, Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Logan Morrison, and Miguel Sano form the main slate’s highest-rated four-man stack in the Bales Model on FanDuel. Rosario and Escobar are specially set up well, as they’re among the top three rated batters in the Bales Model, and each offers an 86% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. Nick Tropeano has struggled to limit big hits recently, ranking among the main slate’s bottom-three pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. Tropeano will have his hands full with a Twins lineup that has combined to post a .319 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year – the fifth-highest mark in Sunday’s main slate.
Pirates (+165) at Cubs (-180) — 2:20 PM EST
Pirates out: Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli (jaw)
Pirates in: Josh Harrison, Austin Meadows
Josh Harrison rejoined the Pirates after missing Saturday’s game for personal reasons, and Francisco Cervelli is out of the lineup after getting hit in the jaw with a foul ball on Saturday. Starling Marte will receive a routine day of rest, and he’ll be replaced by Austin Meadows, who will bat second while Colin Moran bats cleanup. Elias Diaz will catch in Cervelli’s absence. The Pirates are one of seven teams presently implied to score less than 4.0 runs in the main slate, and the forecast at Wrigley Field includes a 52% chance of precipitation. Fading the game entirely is one option to avoid the chances of a postponement, but those in tournaments could glean an advantage with Cubs’ righty Kyle Hendricks, who has the third-highest DraftKings Pro Trends and faces a lineup with the fourth-lowest team wOBA.
Cubs out: Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras
Cubs in: Ian Happ, Chris Gimenez
Ben Zobrist and Willson Contreras will receive routine days off for the Cubs in their matchup against the Pirates. Ian Happ and Chris Gimenez will bat fifth and eighth, respectively, for a Cubs lineup currently implied to score 5.3 runs. They currently boast the fourth-best Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel and are set up well against righty Ivan Nova, who allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts before landing on the disabled list. Overall, Javy Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ, and Kyle Schwarber form the fourth-highest rated four-man stack in combined ISO in Sunday’s main slate. Happ, in particular, is set up well on FanDuel, where his $2,600 price tag comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating and a +0.91 Projected Plus/Minus. Both offenses are in play at Wrigley Field, which currently boasts the main slate’s second-most hitter-friendly Weather Rating. Still, current forecasts call for an estimated 52% chance of precipitation.
Diamondbacks (+127) at Rockies (-138) — 3:10 PM EST
Rockies out: Carlos Gonzalez (back spasms)
Rockies in: Noel Cuevas
Carlos Gonzalez was scratched from Saturday’s contest with back spasms, and he’ll miss the series finale against the Diamondbacks on Sunday. Noel Cuevas will replace Gonzalez in the outfield, and Trevor Story will slide up to the cleanup spot for a Rockies team presently implied to score 6.6 runs — tops among all teams on Sunday and a total that has increased 0.6 runs since it opened. Despite the high team total, the Rockies do not have one of the top-rated stacks in the Bales Model on DraftKings, and their top four hitters all cost at least $4,600. Story leads all shortstops with 11 DraftKings Pro Trends and a 56% recent hard-hit rate. He’s also $100 cheaper than Twins’ Eduardo Escobar, who is the only shortstop with a higher recent batted ball distance.
