Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Indians (+182) at Yankees (-198) — 7:05 PM EST
Indians in: Bradley Zimmer
Indians out: Michael Brantley
The Indians’ implied total has increased from 3.9 to 4.4 runs since opening. Estimated wind gusts of 14 miles per hour blowing out to center will seemingly benefit both offenses, and the Indians-Yankees’ matchup currently has the most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Friday’s main slate. The Yankees need C.C. Sabathia to continue to limit big hits, as he joins Walker Buehler as the slate’s only pitchers with fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 28 percent or less over the past 12 months. Sabathia will face off against an Indians lineup that features four batters in Jose Ramirez, Brandon Guyer, Yan Gomes, and Rajai Davis that have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. southpaws over the past calendar year. Guyer, in particular, is set up well on DraftKings, where his $2,600 price tag comes with an 81 percent Bargain Rating.
Blue Jays (-152) at Rays (+140) — 7:10 PM EST
Blue Jays in: Teoscar Hernandez
Blue Jays out: Justin Smoak (paternity list)
Justin Smoak will sit out Friday’s matchup against the Rays, so the Blue Jays will deploy Yangervis Solarte and Teoscar Hernandez at the No. 3 and No. 4 spots. They’re currently implied to score a respectable 4.5 runs and are set up well against right-hander Andrew Kittredge, who hasn’t pitched more than 3.1 innings in either of his two career starts. Still, Kittredge has done a solid job limiting big hits as a relief pitcher recently, ranking among the main slate’s top-two pitchers in fly-ball and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. He’ll face off against a Blue Jays lineup that has combined to post a wOBA of just .287 against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months – the fourth-lowest mark Friday’s main slate. None of the Blue Jays’ starters currently carry a projected ownership rate above 2-4 percent.
Pirates (+104) at Brewers (-113) — 8:10 PM EST
Brewers in: Domingo Santana
Brewers out: Ryan Braun (right calf)
Ryan Braun is dealing with a right calf injury and will be replaced by Domingo Santana, who will bat fifth for a Brewers lineup currently implied to score 4.1 runs. They offer upside throughout the lineup, as each of Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, Santana, Manny Pina, and Orlando Arcia have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. The Brewers will face off against righty Nick Kingham, who allowed just one hit in seven innings during his first career start on April, 29. Exposure to Kingham should be focused on DraftKings, where his $6,800 price tag comes with an 89 percent Bargain Rating and a +4.14 Projected Plus/Minus. The Brewers currently have the seventh-worst Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Dodgers (-122) at Padres (+113) — 9:10 PM EST
Dodgers out: Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger will sit the first game in Mexico, but it may not matter as the forecast portends rain which could translate into a postponed contest. Enrique Hernandez will replace Bellinger at first base and the rest of the players will shuffle around and allow Yasmani Grandal to catch and bat cleanup after resting the previous game. Hernandez and Austin Barnes have thrived against left-handed pitchers over the past year, and left-hander Joey Lucchesi has allowed a 46% recent hard-hit rate. Exposure to this game should be limited to tournaments due to the weather, and Hernandez remains too cheap for a hitter atop the lineup who has historically crushed lefties.
Pictured: Yankee Stadium
