Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Chicago Cubs (-118) at Pirates (+109) — 7:05 PM EST
Cubs in: Ian Happ (sore shoulder)
Cubs out: Javy Baez
The Cubs will welcome Ian Happ back to the lineup, while Javier Baez will receive a day off. Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo will bat third and fourth for a Cubs lineup currently implied to score a respectable 4.5 runs. Both offenses will have to deal with estimated winds of six miles per hour blowing in from center, although the Cubs-Pirates’ matchup currently boasts the fourth-most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Tuesday’s main slate. Overall, each of Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, Rizzo, Happ, and Jason Heyward have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Exposure to Zobrist should be focused on FanDuel, where his $2,700 price tag comes with a 96 percent Bargain Rating. Nick Kingham will need to do a better job limiting big hits, as he ranks among the bottom-three pitchers in Tuesday’s main slate in both average batted ball distance and hard-hit rate allowed over the past calendar year.
Houston Astros (-116) at Yankees (+107) — 7:05 PM EST
Astros in: J.D. Davis
Astros out: Carlos Correa
Carlos Correa will receive a routine day off Tuesday. The Astros will roll with George Springer, Alex Bregman, and Jose Altuve at the top of their order against southpaw C.C. Sabathia. They’re currently implied to score a solid 4.7 runs and have combined to post a slate-high .349 wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Overall, Springer, Bregman, J.D. Davis, and Max Stassi form the main slate’s fourth-best four-man stack in combined ISO. Bregman and Stassi are the second- and fifth-highest rated third baseman and catcher in Tuesday’s main slate, respectively. Sabathia has allowed 15 runs in his last 13.1 innings pitched, but will look to rally at Yankee Stadium, where he’s averaged 14.3 DraftKings points per game with a 50 percent Consistency Rating over the past three seasons. Still, he offers hardly any strikeout upside considering he carries a 3.6 K Prediction and faces an Astros lineup that has combined to strike out every .189 at bats over the past 12 months – the lowest mark in Tuesday’s main slate.
Blue Jays (+170) at Red Sox (-185) — 7:10 PM EST
Blue Jays in: Russell Martin
Blue Jays out: Josh Donaldson (tight left calf)
Josh Donaldson is sidelined with a tight left calf, so Russell Martin will start at third base and bat sixth for a Blue Jays lineup currently implied to score four runs. The top of the lineup offers plenty of power upside, as only Kevin Pillar has posted negative ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months among the Blue Jays’ 1-6 batters. Their combined wOBA of .322 against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months is the sixth-highest mark in Tuesday’s main slate. They’ll look to make life tough on Rick Porcello, who has allowed 19 runs in his last 21 innings pitched. Porcello has done a better job limiting big hits recently, as he ranks among the main slate’s top-three pitchers in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. Exposure to Porcello should be focused on FanDuel, where his $8,900 price tag comes with an 89 percent Bargain Rating.
Red Sox in: Dustin Pedroia
Red Sox out: Mookie Betts (tight left side)
The Red Sox will be without Mookie Betts for a third consecutive game as he continues to deal with his tight left side. Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, and Mitch Moreland will hit atop the order for a Red Sox lineup currently implied to score 5.6 runs – the third-highest mark in Tuesday’s main slate. The Red Sox are especially in play on DraftKings, where their Team Value Rating is tied for the highest mark in Tuesday’s main slate. Overall, Benintendi, Moreland, J.D. Martinez, and Rafael Devers form the main slate’s fourth-highest rated four-man stack in the Bales Model on DraftKings. Devers in particular is set up well, as his $3,300 price tag on DraftKings comes with a 94 percent Bargain Rating and a minimal 2-4 percent projected ownership rate. Marco Estrada ranks among the main slate’s bottom-four pitchers in both average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 15 days, an issue that could be amplified against a Red Sox lineup that has combined to post a .328 wOBA over the past calendar year – the fifth-highest mark in Tuesday’s main slate.
Giants (+129) at Rockies (-140) — 8:40 PM EST
Rockies in: Gerardo Parra
Rockies out: David Dahl (shin contusion)
The Rockies are without David Dahl, who is sidelined with a shin contusion. Carlos Gonzalez and Trevor Story will bat fourth and fifth for a Rockies lineup currently implied to score six runs at Coors Field. Charlie Blackmon, Gerardo Parra, Story, and Ian Desmond form the main slate’s highest-projected four-man stack on DraftKings. They’ll face off against Jeff Samardzija, who ranks among the main slate’s top-five pitchers in average batted ball distance and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. Samardzija offers strikeout upside against a Rockies lineup that has combined to strike out every .312 at bats over the past calendar year – the highest mark in Tuesday’s main slate. He’ll need to be particularly on point against the top of the Rockies lineup, as each of Blackmon, Parra, and Gonzalez have posted positive ISO and wOBA splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Reds (+105) at Diamondbacks (-114) — 9:40 PM EST
Diamondbacks in: Jake Lamb
Diamondbacks out: Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt will rest, so Jarrod Dyson, Ketel Marte, and Jake Lamb will bat at the top of the order for a Diamondbacks lineup presently implied to score 4.1 runs. They’re set up well against righty Luis Castillo, as only Marte and Nick Ahmed have posted negative wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year. Daniel Descalso in particular is in play on FanDuel, where his $2,400 price tag comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and a +0.5 Projected Plus/Minus. Still, Castillo has been very tough to hit for the better part of the past month, as he’s allowed two or fewer runs in five consecutive starts that have each lasted at least five innings. He’ll take on a Diamondbacks lineup that has combined to post a slate-low .276 wOBA vs. righties over the past 12 months. Castillo’s 7.5 K Prediction is the fourth-highest mark in Tuesday’s main slate, and the Diamondbacks lineup has posted the main slate’s second-highest combined strikeout rate over the past calendar year.
Pictured above: Ian Happ
Photo credit: David Banks — USA TODAY Sports
