Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Angels (+152) at Yankees (-165) — 1:05 PM EST
Angels out: Justin Upton (left forearm contusion), Albert Pujols
Angels in: Chris Young, Luis Valbuena
Justin Upton suffered a left forearm contusion after getting hit by a pitch in Saturday’s game and won’t start against the Yankees on Sunday. Albert Pujols will receive a day off in the series finale, and the Angels are presently implied to score 3.5 runs in a game that presents rainy conditions. Chris Young will replace Upton in the outfield and Luis Valbuena will take over at first base for the resting Pujols. Yankees’ right-hander Masahiro Tanaka has some of the best recent Statcast data on the slate, but he’s allowed at least three runs in the last four outings and failed to exceed 80 pitches in the most recent two. His salary has dipped to $6,700 on DraftKings, and the last time he exceeded salary-based expectations, he etched 31.1 DraftKings points against the Angels. He’s a risky SP2 option, but he’s cheap and gets to face a lineup sans Upton and Pujols.
Braves (+214) at Red Sox (-235) — 1:05 PM EST
Red Sox out: J.D. Martinez
Red Sox in: Eduardo Nunez
J.D. Martinez will sit Sunday’s series finale against the Braves, a game that features an ominous forecast. Xander Bogaerts will move up to the three-hole, Rafael Devers will handle designated hitter duties, and Eduardo Nunez will move into the lineup and man third base. Nunez and Dustin Pedroia are the only hitters in the lineup without at least five DraftKings Pro Trends. Nonetheless, the Red Sox implied total has decreased 0.3 runs since the line opened, and hitters at Fenway Park have a putrid 15 Weather Rating while a 36% chance of precipitation threatens to delay the proceedings. Mitch Moreland has been crushing the ball recently, and he leads the Red Sox with a 0.231 ISO against right-handers over the last 12 months. While stacking the Sox may not be the optimal route, Moreland offers upside as he ranks second among first basemen with a 52% recent hard-hit rate.
Orioles (-102) at Rays (-106) — 1:10 PM EST
Orioles out: Adam Jones
Orioles in: Craig Gentry
Adam Jones will receive a day off on Sunday after playing 18 consecutive games. In his absence, Craig Gentry will enter the lineup in center field to hit eighth while Jace Peterson shifts to right field with Luis Valbuena at third base. Pedro Alvarez will slide up to the two-hole in place of Jones as the Orioles will guarantee a left-handed hitter against Sergio Romo, who is making his fourth start in the last eight days. The Orioles have a disappointing team total of 4.0 runs and every hitter has fewer than five Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Despite carrying the highest salary of any shortstop on FanDuel, Manny Machado remains an intriguing option as he leads the team with a 46% Consistency Rating over the last month. An Orioles stack will certainly be low-owned in tournaments but presents upside if the Rays struggle to provide depth with their pitching.
Cardinals (+107) at Pirates (-116) — 1:35 PM EST
Pirates out: Josh Harrison, Corey Dickerson
Pirates in: Adam Frazier, Austin Meadows
Josh Harrison and Corey Dickerson will receive a day off on Sunday and Adam Frazier will hit atop the lineup and play second base. Austin Meadows will replace Dickerson in left field after Clint Hurdle indicated that he will find playing time for Meadows even with Starling Marte back in center field. Marte hit a home run in his first game back from the disabled list on Saturday, but the Pirates are currently implied to score just 4.2 runs on Sunday. Francisco Cervelli will remain in the two-hole for the second straight game and is the highest-rated Pirates hitter in the Bales Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Over the last 15 days, Cervelli leads the team in batted-ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage. Opposing pitcher Miles Mikolas has limited batters to a high ground-ball percentage recently, but has allowed the fifth-highest hard-hit percentage out of all starting pitchers on Sunday.
Pictured above: Justin Upton, Albert Pujols.
Photo credit: Rick Scuteri – USA TODAY Sports
