Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Angels (+206) at Yankees (-225) — 7:05 PM EST
Yankees in: Gary Sanchez (right calf cramp)
Gary Sanchez missed Wednesday’s game with a right calf cramp, but he’ll catch and bat fourth for a Yankees lineup currently implied to score 5.6 runs against the Angels. The Yankees implied total has increased 0.6 runs since the line opened, and they are one of four teams presently implied to score at least 5.5 runs in the main slate. They’re set up well against southpaw Andrew Heaney, as the Yankees have posted a slate-high .368 wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers over the past calendar year. Overall, Giancarlo Stanton, Sanchez, Tyler Austin, and Gleyber Torres form the main slate’s best four-man stack in combined ISO over the past 12 months. Heaney is one of just three pitchers in Friday’s main slate that has allowed more than two home runs per nine innings pitched over the past calendar year. Both pitchers will have to deal with estimated wind gusts of 10 miles per hour blowing out to left center.
Braves (+169) at Red Sox (-184) — 7:10 PM EST
Red Sox out: Dustin Pedroia (left knee surgery), Hanley Ramirez
Red Sox in: Brock Holt, Mitch Moreland
Dustin Pedroia‘s long-awaited season debut is expected to happen Saturday, while Hanley Ramirez was surprisingly designated for assignment Friday morning. The Red Sox will roll with Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and J.D. Martinez at the top of the lineup for their matchup against the Braves. Their implied total has increased 0.6 runs since the line opened, and they’re one of just three teams presently implied to score more than six runs in the main slate. The Red Sox are especially in play on DraftKings, where they currently boast the second-highest Team Value Rating in Friday’s main slate. Among the Red Sox starters, only Betts, Martinez, and Christian Vazquez have posted negative ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year. Braves’ righty Julio Teheran will have his hands full with a Red Sox lineup that has combined to post a .335 wOBA vs. righties over the past 12 months – tied for the fourth-worst mark in Friday’s main slate. Both offenses could benefit from estimated wind gusts of 11 miles per hour blowing out to center field.
White Sox (-104) at Tigers (-104) — 7:10 PM EST
White Sox out: Matt Davidson (stiff back)
White Sox in: Daniel Palka
Matt Davidson will miss his third consecutive game due to stiffness in his back, so the White Sox will roll with Jose Abreu and Daniel Palka in the No. 3 and No. 4 spots, respectively, for their matchup against the Tigers. The White Sox are presently implied to score a respectable 4.6 runs, although they’ve combined to post a slate-low .267 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. This is great news for Mike Fiers, carries a solid 7.4 K Prediction and offers strikeout upside against one of just three lineups that has a strikeout rate greater than 0.3 over the past calendar year. Regardless, Fiers has allowed at least two home runs in four of his eight starts this season and has allowed the third-highest average batted ball distance among all pitchers in Friday’s main slate over the past 15 days. Exposure to Fiers should be focused on DraftKings, where his +6.15 FantasyLabs’ Projected Plus/Minus is the third-highest mark in the Bales Model, and he carries a modest 2-4% projected ownership rate.
