Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Padres (+165) at Nationals (-179) — 7:05 PM EST
Nationals out: Matt Adams
Nationals in: Juan Soto
Matt Adams will be replaced in the lineup by 19-year old rookie Juan Soto, who will bat sixth in his first career major league start. The Nationals are currently implied to score a respectable 4.4 runs against the Padres, who will turn to southpaw Robbie Erlin for just the second time this season. Erlin’s first start didn’t end very well, as he allowed six runs in just three innings pitched. Still, he’s set up well against a Nationals lineup that has combined to post a .273 wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers over the past calendar year – the second-lowest mark in Monday’s main slate. Erlin carries a strong 7.2 K Prediction and is especially in play on DraftKings, where his $4,400 price tag comes with an 81 percent Bargain Rating and a +5.49 Projected Plus/Minus. Only Anthony Rendon, Wilmer Difo, and Michael Taylor have posted positive ISO splits vs. lefties over the past 12 months.
Marlins (+119) at Mets (-129) — 7:10 PM EST
Mets out: Wilmer Flores
Mets in: Luis Guillorme
Wilmer Flores will receive a rest day, so the Mets will roll with Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Jay Bruce at the top of the order for their matchup against the Marlins. They’re currently implied to score 4.6 runs and carry the third-highest Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Overall, each of the Mets’ 1-7 batters have posted positive ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Adrian Gonzalez in particular is set up well, as he ranks among the main slate’s top-two first basemen in ISO and wOBA differential vs. righties over the past calendar year. Elieser Hernandez will look to do a better job limiting big hits, as he ranks among the main slate’s bottom-five pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. Both offenses could benefit from estimated wind gusts of six miles per hour blowing out to left-center field.
Orioles (-103) at White Sox (-105) — 8:10 PM EST
Orioles in: Adam Jones (illness)
Adam Jones left Sunday’s game early due to an illness, but he’ll bat second against the White Sox on Monday. The forecast includes rain, which reduces the appeal for Orioles in cash games on a nine-game slate. It’s the only game currently threatened by a weather-related delay or postponement. Additionally, the Orioles’ implied run total has decreased 0.3 runs since the line opened. No hitter in the lineup has more than three DraftKings Pro Trends, but White Sox left-hander Hector Santiago claims the highest HR/9 rate (2.368) among starters in the main slate. Second baseman Jonathan Schoop doesn’t rate as highly as Twins’ Brian Dozier in the Bales Model, but Schoop is cheaper and handles lefties well enough that his wOBA and ISO splits are on par with Dozier’s.
Pictured above: Juan Soto.
Photo credit: Geoff Burke – USA TODAY Sports
