Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Pirates (+179) at Nationals (-195) — 7:05 PM EST
Nationals in: Andrew Stevenson, Pedro Severino
Nationals out: Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Wieters
Ryan Zimmerman and Matt Wieters will rest against the Pirates on Wednesday. Howie Kendrick will move up to the cleanup spot and Matt Adams will man first base while Andrew Stevenson gets the start in Zimmerman’s absence. Bryce Harper is in the leadoff spot for the second straight game after homering on Tuesday. The Nationals are presently implied to score 4.7 runs — the third-highest mark in the main slate. Every Nationals hitter claims at least five Pro Trends on DraftKings, and the Nationals presently lead all teams with a 78 Team Value Rating on DraftKings and FanDuel. Nearly every hitter in the lineup possesses a Recent Batted Ball Luck metric no greater than -36, which may reduce their appeal as a team worth stacking. When Trea Turner has compiled a Recent Batted Ball Luck less than -50, he’s averaged 15.4 FanDuel points per game in 64 occasions. Regardless, Adams is firmly entrenched as a value option on DraftKings and FanDuel as he leads all first basemen in Pro Trends on both sites and costs close to the minimum on FanDuel at $2,400.
Pirates in: Max Moroff
Pirates out: Adam Frazier
Leadoff hitter Adam Frazier will get a day off against the Nationals and right-hander Stephen Strasburg. Max Moroff will bat atop the order and replace Frazier at second base. The Pirates are one of three teams presently implied to score 3.3 runs in the main slate. Conversely, Strasburg leads all pitchers with an 8.6 K Prediction and faces a lineup with the fifth-lowest team wOBA. Despite Strasburg’s positive indicators, he has allowed the highest recent batted-ball distance among pitchers in the main slate. He’s also yielded at least four runs in three of his last five starts. Moroff costs the minimum on FanDuel and leads the Pirates with a 63% recent fly ball rate and 242-foot recent batted-ball distance. He’s one of the top-rated shortstops in the Bales Model and should be considered as a potential punt option at shortstop.
Brewers (-106) at Reds (-102) — 7:10 PM EST
Brewers in: Domingo Santana
Brewers out: Lorenzo Cain
Lorenzo Cain will receive a routine day of rest on Wednesday after playing in the previous 12 games. Jonathan Villar will slide up to the leadoff spot for the fifth time this season, while Domingo Santana enters the lineup in right field with Christian Yelich sliding to center field. Jesus Aguilar will hit fifth and will remain in the lineup for the fourth consecutive game against a right-handed pitcher despite holding better splits against lefties. The Brewers are presently implied to score 4.8 runs — tied with the Reds for the highest run total in the main slate. Travis Shaw leads the team with a .241 ISO against right-handed pitchers and has produced a 45% hard-hit percentage in the last 15 days. Opposing pitcher Luis Castillo has allowed batters to record the second-highest hard-hit percentage over the previous 15 days, and Brewers stacks are firmly in play despite providing zero home runs in a matchup against Castillo two weeks ago.
Phillies (-166) at Marlins (+153) — 7:10 PM EST
Marlins in: Justin Bour, Yadiel Rivera
Marlins out: Starlin Castro, Derek Dietrich
After missing the previous four games due to back spasms, Justin Bour will return to the lineup on Wednesday and hit cleanup. Although the Marlins are returning a powerful bat in the lineup, both Starlin Castro and Derek Dietrich will sit out for rest. In their absence, Cameron Maybin will slide up to the leadoff spot while Yadiel Rivera enters at second base hitting eighth. The Marlins are currently implied to score a slate-low 3.1 runs as they have only one left-handed hitter against righty Aaron Nola. Maybin provides salary cap relief on FanDuel at just $2,200 with his favorable move atop the lineup, but the Marlins also suffer from a negative Park Factor at home. Nola profiles as the top option on FanDuel in the Bales Model with an 85% Bargain Rating, and he holds the second-highest K Prediction (8.4) behind ace Stephen Strasburg.
Pictured above: Jonathan Villar
Photo credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
