Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Diamondbacks (-132) at Mets (+122) — 7:10 PM EST
Diamondbacks out: Steven Souza (right pectoral discomfort)
Diamondbacks in: Chris Owings
Steven Souza is dealing with discomfort in his right pectoral, so Chris Owings will start in right field and bat third. The Diamondbacks are currently implied to score just 3.8 runs against the Mets, a team led by lefty Steven Matz at Citi Field. Matz is set up well against a Diamondbacks lineup that has combined to post a .295 wOBA vs. southpaws over the past 12 months – the fourth-worst mark in Saturday’s main slate. Matz has allowed just one run in each of his past two starts, although he doesn’t offer much strikeout upside considering he’s racked up more than six strikeouts just once in seven starts this season. He’ll look to do a better job limiting big hits, as Matz ranks among the main slate’s bottom-four pitchers in both average batted-ball distance and exit velocity allowed over the past 15 days. Be sure to monitor the weather, as current forecasts estimate a 27 percent chance of precipitation at game time.
Yankees (-270) at Royals (+245) — 7:15 PM EST
Yankees out: Didi Gregorius
Yankees in: Ronald Torreyes
Didi Gregorius will receive a day off amid his 1-for-45 slump, and he’ll be replaced at shortstop by Ronald Torreyes, who will bat eighth. The Yankees will align Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton atop their lineup and are currently implied to score 5.1 runs. They carry the sixth-highest Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and they face Royals southpaw Danny Duffy, who has allowed 25 earned runs in his last 26 innings pitched. Duffy ranks among the bottom-five pitchers in Saturday’s main slate in both average batted ball distance and exit velocity allowed over the past 15 days. Overall, Judge, Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Tyler Austin, and Clint Frazier form the main slate’s highest-rated five-man stack in combined ISO on DraftKings. Both offenses could benefit from estimated wind gusts of eight miles per hour blowing out to center field.
Rays (+160) at Angels (-174) — 9:07 PM EST
Rays out: Denard Span, Adeiny Hechavarria (strained right hamstring)
Rays in: Matt Duffy, Rob Refsnyder
Adeiny Hechavarria was placed on the disabled list with a strained right hamstring, Denard Span is resting against a lefty, and Wilson Ramos will DH, allowing Jesus Sucre to catch. Additionally, Matt Duffy will return to the lineup after missing the previous three games due to a hamstring issue, and Rob Refsnyder will replace Span in the outfield. The Rays are presently implied to score 3.5 runs — a bottom-five mark in the main slate — and Daniel Robertson will bat leadoff for the second time all season. Enter Angels’ left-hander Andrew Heaney, who has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in five of six outings this year. The current Rays lineups has combined for the third-lowest wOBA on the slate, and Heaney could prove to be a valuable cheap pitching option at $7,700 on FanDuel, where he leads all pitchers with eight Pro Trends.
