Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Yankees (-125) at Nationals (+115) — 7:05 PM EST
Yankees out: Brett Gardner
Yankees in: Aaron Hicks
Brett Gardner will receive a rest day, so the Yankees will roll with Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton at the top of the order. They’re currently implied to score a respectable 4.5 runs against the Nationals and southpaw Gio Gonzalez, who has allowed just two earned runs over his last 18 innings pitched. Gonzalez will look to continue to limit big hits, as he ranks among the top-two pitchers in Tuesday’s main slate in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 15 days. He carries a solid 6.6 K Prediction and has averaged 9.26 K/9 over the past 12 months. Gonzalez is set up well against a Yankees lineup that features four batters with negative ISO and wOBA splits vs. southpaws over the past calendar year, although both offenses could benefit from estimated wind gusts of eight miles per hour blowing out to center field.
Blue Jays (+138) at New York Mets (-150) — 7:10 PM EST
Mets out: Yoenis Cespedes (strained right hip flexor)
Mets in: Juan Lagares
Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto will receive a routine day of rest against left-hander Jaime Garcia and the Blue Jays. Cespedes is dealing with a strained right hip flexor, and Conforto has struggled against lefties. Juan Lagares will replace Cespedes in the outfield and bat second, and Wilmer Flores will bat cleanup. Rain is in the forecast, but it’s unclear if it will cause a postponement or merely a delay. Either way, rostering anyone from the Mets, a team implied to score 4.2 runs, seems ambitious. Asdrubal Cabrera may be the lone exception as he leads the Mets with a 0.407 wOBA against lefties over the last month. The Mets do possess the fifth-highest Team Value Rating (80) on FanDuel, but the weather increases the risk.
Dodgers (-175) at Marlins (+161) — 7:10 PM EST
Dodgers in: Justin Turner, Logan Forsythe
Justin Turner will make his season debut against the Marlins on Tuesday, and Logan Forsythe will return to the lineup after missing close to a month with right shoulder inflammation. Despite the additions to the lineup, the Dodgers are presently implied to score 4.3 runs — a mark that has decreased 0.3 runs since the line opened. Turner has been an elite hitter against lefties, posting a slate-high 0.547 wOBA and 0.451 ISO against southpaws over the last year. Marlins’ left-hander Wei-Yin Chen has allowed six homers in three starts this season, and he has the highest HR/9 rate (2.983) and recent fly ball rate (62%) among starters on the main slate. The top-three hitters in the Dodgers lineup, as well as Austin Barnes, claim positive wOBA and ISO splits, and the Dodgers could provide a contrarian stack in tournaments based on their long-term success against southpaws.
Indians (-144) at Tigers (+133) — 7:10 PM EST
Indians out: Edwin Encarnacion (stiff neck, upper back)
Edwin Encarnacion is dealing with a stiff neck and upper back, and he’ll take the night off against the Tigers and left-hander Francisco Liriano on Tuesday. Michael Brantley will assume DH duties, Rajai Davis will bat leadoff, and Gabe Allen will remain in the outfield rotation. The Indians’ implied total has dropped below 5.0 runs after the lineup was confirmed. Liriano has elite recent Statcast data, highlighted by his 14% hard-hit rate allowed in his last two outings. Additionally, Liriano hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start this season. Six of the hitters in the lineup cost less than $3,000 on FanDuel, and Davis may create interest as a punt option as a cheap leadoff hitter with stolen base potential.
Brewers (+142) at Diamondbacks (-154) — 9:40 PM EST
Brewers out: Ryan Braun (tight right mid-back)
Brewers in: Domingo Santana
Ryan Braun will miss another game due to a tight-right mid back. Lorenzo Cain will lead things off for a Brewers lineup currently implied to score just 3.6 runs against righty Zack Greinke. Still, the Brewers offer some firepower at the top of their lineup, as each of Christian Yelich, Domingo Santana, Travis Shaw, and Jonathan Villar have posted positive ISO and wOBA splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Greinke will need to do a better job limiting big hits, as he’s allowed a slate-high 50 percent hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Exposure to Greinke should be focused on FanDuel, where his $9,500 price tag comes with a 98 percent Bargain Rating and a +6.44 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s the fourth-highest rated pitcher on FanDuel in the Bales Model, although his 9-12 percent projected ownership rate is tied for the second-highest mark in Tuesday’s main slate.
Diamondbacks out: AJ Pollock (sprained left thumb)
Diamondbacks in: Chris Owings
AJ Pollock suffered a sprained left thumb during the ninth inning of Monday’s loss, and he’ll sit against the Brewers and right-hander Jhoulys Chacin on Tuesday. He’s expected to head to the disabled list, according to manager Torrey Lovullo. Paul Goldschmidt will bat cleanup and Chris Owings will replace Pollock in the outfield for a Diamondbacks team presently implied to score 4.5 runs. They also currently have the highest Team Value Rating on FanDuel (85), and Owings costs near the minimum ($2,100) on FanDuel. Steven Souza, who leads the Diamondbacks with 7 Pro Trends on FanDuel, costs $2,200, and Daniel Descalso, who leads the team with a 253-foot recent batted ball distance, costs a mere $2,500. Many of their cheap hitters could prove fruitful as Chacin has allowed the fourth-highest recent hard-hit rate (45%).
