Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Red Sox (-127) at Blue Jays (+117) — 1:07 PM EST
Red Sox out: Hanley Ramirez, Eduardo Nunez
Red Sox in: Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt
Hanley Ramirez and Eduardo Nunez will rest during Sunday’s series finale against the Blue Jays and right-hander Joe Biagini. JD Martinez will move up to the three-hole, and Mitch Moreland will replace Ramirez at first base and as the cleanup hitter. Brock Holt will take over at second for Nunez and bat seventh for a team presently implied to score 5.1 runs — the fifth-highest mark in the main slate. The roof will be open at Rogers Centre, and there’s minimal chance of rain. Every hitter in the lineup has at least five DraftKings Pro Trends, and the Red Sox currently have the highest-rated four-man stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel in the Bales Model. Biagini possesses the third-highest WHIP (1.667) over the last 12 months among pitchers on the slate, and despite the absence of Ramirez, the Red Sox may prove to be a popular team to stack in cash games.
Mariners (-210) at Tigers (+192) — 1:10 PM EST
Tigers out: Nick Castellanos (left finger contusion), Jeimer Candelario (left wrist)
Tigers in: Niko Goodrum, Pete Kozma
Nick Castellanos suffered a left finger contusion during the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader, and he’ll be replaced in the lineup on Sunday by Niko Goodrum. Jeimer Candelario is dealing with a wrist ailment and will be available to pinch hit off the bench. Pete Kozma will replace Candelario in the infield and bat second. The Tigers are presently implied to score 3.5 runs against the Mariners and left-hander James Paxton, who threw a no-hitter in his last start. Although Paxton has been accumulating strikeouts lately, he’s facing a team with the lowest strikeout rate against lefties this season. His 8.3 K Prediction is the second-highest among pitchers in the main slate, but Tigers hitters have averaged a +1.98 DraftKings Plus/Minus against lefties this year — the second-highest team average. Tigers hitters are an extremely contrarian option, but they rarely strikeout against lefties.
Giants (+138) at Pirates (-150) — 1:35 PM EST
Giants out: Gregor Blanco, Buster Posey
Giants in: Gorkys Hernandez, Nick Hundley
The Giants are without both Gregor Blanco and Buster Posey, so Gorkys Hernandez and Nick Hundley will start in centerfield and at catcher, respectively. They’ll bat first and seventh for a Giants lineup currently implied to score just 3.9 runs against the Pirates and right-hander Ivan Nova, who has allowed 10 earned runs in his last 6.2 innings pitched. Still, Nova is set up well against a Giants lineup that has combined to post a .291 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year – the second-worst mark in Sunday’s main slate. Exposure to Nova should be focused on DraftKings, where his $6,400 price tag is complemented by an 87 percent Bargain Rating and a +1.11 FantasyLabs’ Projected Plus/Minus. Nova carries a 6.1 K Prediction and has a great matchup against a Giants lineup that has posted a slate-worst combined strikeout rate of .289 over the past 12 months.
Pirates out: Gregory Polanco
Pirates in: Corey Dickerson
Gregory Polanco will receive a rest day, so the Pirates will roll with Francisco Cervelli, Jose Osuna, and Starling Marte at the top of the order for their matchup against the Giants. They’re currently implied to score a respectable 4.7 runs and are especially in play on DraftKings, where they boast the third-highest Team Value Rating in Sunday’s main slate. Overall, Cervelli, Osuna, and Corey Dickerson form the main slate’s fourth-highest rated three-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. Cervelli, in particular, is set up well from the lead-off spot, as he’s the highest-rated overall batter in the Bales Model on DraftKings. He’ll look to continue to crush the ball, as Cervelli ranks among the top-three catchers in Sunday’s main slate in average batted ball distance and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. The whole Pirates lineup is set up well against Derek Holland, who is one of just five pitchers in Sunday’s main slate that have allowed a fly-ball rate over 40 percent over the past calendar year.
