Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Rangers (+208) at Astros (-228) — 7:10 PM EST
Astros out: George Springer (left elbow contusion)
Astros in: Derek Fisher
George Springer is dealing with a bruised left elbow, so the Astros will roll with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa at the top of the order for their matchup against the Rangers. They’re currently implied to score 5.2 runs and are especially in play on FanDuel, where their Team Value Rating (84) is tied with the Dodgers for the highest mark in Saturday’s main slate. Overall, each of Altuve, Yulieski Gurriel, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, and Evan Gattis have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Altuve, in particular, is set up well on FanDuel, where his $4,200 price tag comes with a 76 percent Bargain Rating. He’s the main slate’s third-highest rated second baseman on FanDuel in the Bales Model, but he does carry a steep projected ownership rate of 17-20%. Doug Fister will look to continue to limit big hits, as he ranks among the slate’s top-two pitchers in average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 15 days.
Brewers (+104) at Rockies (-112) — 8:10 PM EST
Brewers out: Travis Shaw
Brewers in: Domingo Santana
Travis Shaw will receive a rest day, so Ryan Braun and Jesus Aguilar will bat third and fourth, respectively, for a Brewers lineup currently implied to score 5.4 runs. They’re especially in play on DraftKings, where they boast the highest Team Value Rating in Saturday’s main slate. Overall, Lorenzo Cain, Aguilar, and Domingo Santana form the main slate’s fourth-highest rated three-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. They’ll face off against left-hander Kyle Freeland, who is set up fairly well against a Brewers lineup that has combined to post a slate-low .304 wOBA vs. southpaws over the past calendar year. Freeland will look to continue to limit big hits, as he ranks among the main slate’s top-two pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. Current forecasts at Coors Field call for estimated wind gusts of eight miles per hour coming in from center field.
Cardinals (-111) at Padres (+103) — 8:40 PM EST
Cardinals out: Matt Carpenter
Cardinals in: Greg Garcia
Matt Carpenter is out of the lineup for the second straight game, and he’s been replaced by Greg Garcia, who will bat eighth against the Padres and right-hander Tyson Ross on Saturday. The Cardinals are presently implied to score 3.9 runs, but they are facing a pitcher who has allowed a slate-high 67% hard-hit rate and +28-foot batted ball distance differential in his last two starts — both of which occurred in pitcher-friendly parks. Tommy Pham will bat leadoff for the Cardinals, and he leads all outfielders with a 64% recent hard-hit rate. His salary doesn’t offer much wiggle room on DraftKings, but he offers the highest Bargain Rating (82%) among outfielders priced above $3500 on FanDuel. Pham and Paul DeJong, the two-hitter, have a recent batted-ball distance of at least 240 feet, and they could serve as a potential mini-stack despite the non-existent Park Factor and low team-implied total. The top-two hitters in the order with a similar Park Factor, implied total, and recent batted-ball distance have averaged a +1.15 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
